***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.6 24.5 12.4 190.8 83.8 55.1 3.5 7.3 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 18.4 31.6 13.9 209.5 86.0 59.9 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 15.3 27.6 13.5 212.6 86.6 60.3 3.3 7.0 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 2.8 20.7 12.5 186.2 83.3 51.8 2.8 6.1 10.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.3 21.7 13.1 190.7 83.8 55.8 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 2.1 12.9 17.2 156.3 78.7 57.0 1.8 4.1 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 13.3 22.7 14.2 198.9 84.8 59.8 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.0 28.6 14.1 163.5 79.7 52.3 4.6 9.7 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.2 26.3 14.5 197.2 84.8 56.7 2.7 6.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.8 25.0 16.6 177.3 81.8 55.3 3.6 7.7 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.8 22.7 10.8 177.0 81.9 52.6 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.7 18.8 9.6 167.1 80.4 49.2 2.2 5.4 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.5 15.7 11.6 160.5 79.4 54.6 2.5 5.4 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 20.0 34.2 17.2 191.5 83.8 60.6 3.2 7.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.9 15.1 12.7 200.1 84.9 54.5 1.7 3.9 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.8 18.3 11.6 175.8 81.6 55.7 2.5 5.5 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.3 30.4 14.0 200.5 84.9 57.3 3.6 8.2 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 22.9 34.4 21.5 184.6 82.7 62.1 3.7 8.8 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 16.8 29.1 13.0 206.9 85.7 60.0 3.5 7.5 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 19.7 18.6 152.7 77.9 57.4 4.7 8.6 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.9 29.9 12.7 212.2 86.8 55.7 3.6 7.6 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.0 21.8 14.1 193.4 83.9 59.5 3.6 7.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 17.9 31.7 12.4 200.2 85.0 60.6 2.6 6.6 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 17.1 28.3 18.7 204.3 85.3 63.3 3.4 7.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 15.7 24.2 14.1 181.2 82.3 61.5 2.7 6.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.7 15.5 9.1 175.4 81.8 52.2 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 3.3 23.8 13.9 168.7 80.5 57.1 2.6 6.8 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.4 18.2 13.0 189.2 83.4 49.7 2.4 5.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 27.1 37.7 20.5 171.9 81.0 60.3 6.5 13.0 22.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 14.2 24.5 13.6 206.2 85.7 60.6 3.0 6.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------