***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 4.4 21.5 7.7 162.7 79.7 48.0 4.3 8.4 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.2 22.0 8.9 159.1 79.1 54.7 4.2 8.2 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.1 18.7 8.0 149.9 77.5 54.6 3.6 7.3 12.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.1 24.2 7.3 115.6 70.4 48.7 6.4 12.5 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.1 13.6 9.0 127.6 73.2 50.6 3.8 6.8 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.4 30.2 12.0 166.8 80.2 56.5 4.4 9.8 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.4 18.6 9.4 173.2 81.4 55.7 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 16.3 26.5 11.0 132.0 74.4 56.5 6.5 12.3 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.6 19.5 10.0 136.7 75.2 50.6 4.4 8.7 14.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 14.2 23.8 11.6 131.4 74.2 54.9 5.2 10.6 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.1 20.2 8.0 132.3 74.2 51.5 5.1 9.6 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.8 18.7 7.4 125.7 72.9 52.5 4.4 8.8 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.9 18.7 7.8 141.8 75.9 53.9 3.3 7.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 21.2 12.1 134.3 74.5 57.9 4.0 8.6 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 4.6 18.9 6.2 115.2 70.3 45.4 4.6 9.3 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.9 15.8 7.4 141.0 75.8 52.9 3.7 7.0 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.7 24.5 8.8 157.0 78.7 51.8 4.1 8.6 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.2 19.5 13.4 131.7 74.3 59.6 5.3 9.5 15.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.8 23.2 8.6 150.1 77.5 53.2 3.7 8.0 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 17.8 21.2 14.3 143.0 76.2 59.8 4.9 9.3 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.4 19.7 8.1 140.9 75.9 48.5 3.8 8.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.2 17.0 8.6 147.7 77.0 52.5 3.7 7.1 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.9 16.8 8.8 139.3 75.5 52.9 3.5 7.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.4 26.6 11.1 134.2 74.7 58.8 6.7 12.4 20.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.8 16.7 8.2 123.8 72.3 50.0 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.6 15.3 4.9 124.6 71.3 50.0 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.1 19.2 8.7 147.4 76.8 50.0 4.8 8.7 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 4.0 18.0 6.7 122.9 72.0 45.9 4.1 8.3 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 22.5 25.9 13.6 131.8 74.3 59.7 7.4 12.9 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.6 15.1 8.8 160.3 79.3 55.2 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------