***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.3 17.8 7.0 162.0 79.7 38.5 2.6 5.8 10.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.3 14.4 8.5 144.7 76.4 46.1 2.3 5.2 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.8 17.7 6.9 139.3 75.2 41.4 2.7 6.4 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 1.8 7.9 5.0 94.2 63.7 39.1 1.9 4.5 8.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 1.8 6.4 5.8 105.3 67.4 41.5 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 2.4 8.5 6.4 87.5 62.8 37.5 2.6 5.3 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.1 14.6 8.6 152.2 77.8 46.9 2.2 5.0 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.8 14.2 7.1 103.9 66.9 45.3 4.7 8.5 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 2.5 9.4 6.7 121.0 71.2 42.1 2.4 4.7 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.6 12.2 7.8 108.9 68.3 44.2 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.2 6.6 5.0 103.7 67.0 42.2 2.3 4.1 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.3 7.0 4.8 97.4 64.9 42.1 2.2 4.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 1.8 6.0 4.7 83.7 61.5 36.6 1.8 3.9 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.5 15.3 10.6 111.9 69.8 42.4 5.2 8.9 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 1.7 7.8 4.0 98.4 64.8 36.7 1.9 4.4 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 1.5 6.5 4.7 100.7 66.3 39.8 1.5 3.3 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 1.8 7.1 8.3 116.3 70.1 43.9 1.9 3.7 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 3.2 9.7 10.1 103.2 66.9 43.7 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.7 14.4 8.1 136.3 74.7 43.6 2.9 6.1 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.0 12.8 10.3 100.7 66.2 44.2 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 2.5 14.1 6.1 135.2 74.3 39.4 2.6 5.6 10.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 2.6 10.0 8.2 106.8 67.8 42.3 2.7 5.5 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 2.4 10.9 7.9 123.5 72.0 39.7 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.2 14.2 8.8 106.1 68.0 42.7 4.2 8.1 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.6 13.8 8.1 149.4 76.9 43.1 2.8 5.6 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.4 5.9 3.2 68.3 55.3 34.6 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 2.8 23.2 8.5 169.5 80.9 43.6 2.8 6.8 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 1.8 7.3 4.2 90.8 62.9 36.3 2.0 4.5 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 4.2 13.3 10.9 104.1 67.3 44.1 4.2 7.8 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 2.3 17.0 8.1 155.6 78.4 45.5 2.3 5.3 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------