***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 14 86 100 78.0 161.8 67.0 264.0 93.7 86.4 20.0 36.3 58.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 72.6 139.6 67.6 258.1 95.0 86.7 23.6 37.8 55.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 74.8 125.7 65.3 253.2 93.1 85.6 29.3 43.7 60.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 81.7 133.7 68.7 241.4 90.9 83.9 26.9 43.6 64.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 56.0 86.9 65.1 223.4 89.5 82.5 16.8 28.2 43.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 71.1 101.8 74.1 209.9 88.2 81.2 28.1 42.0 59.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 65.3 128.5 69.1 254.8 95.2 87.5 21.0 33.6 49.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 92.8 123.4 67.3 198.4 86.4 81.3 39.5 57.1 78.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 67.7 100.6 66.9 228.9 90.1 83.1 24.6 37.7 53.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 86.2 126.3 73.5 207.4 87.8 82.0 27.2 45.0 67.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 63.9 102.0 59.1 231.2 89.9 84.5 18.7 31.8 49.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 66.4 93.9 52.2 209.8 87.2 82.1 22.4 35.8 52.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 56.7 80.3 55.5 204.6 87.1 80.8 18.9 30.4 45.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 89.9 129.9 74.4 197.7 87.1 79.7 31.1 49.6 73.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 64.0 121.4 72.0 286.7 94.4 87.2 19.6 32.3 48.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 53.0 81.4 58.6 232.3 89.7 84.0 17.7 28.4 41.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 69.2 109.6 67.5 240.6 94.4 85.7 32.6 44.4 57.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 78.0 104.1 82.4 189.5 85.9 79.6 33.8 49.1 66.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 82.5 157.5 65.4 252.1 93.9 85.7 24.8 41.8 63.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 65.5 78.2 73.7 163.8 81.3 75.4 33.6 45.6 59.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 73.7 117.7 64.7 260.7 92.9 86.5 29.8 43.6 59.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 67.5 99.4 64.6 225.1 92.0 84.2 31.4 43.1 56.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 68.3 112.5 62.4 227.6 91.0 82.9 23.1 37.3 54.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 85.5 121.4 76.1 212.2 88.9 81.6 37.4 53.5 72.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 72.4 109.7 72.3 230.2 91.3 84.1 29.4 43.1 59.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 14 86 100 60.7 91.4 48.4 223.5 89.2 83.7 21.5 33.6 48.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 14 86 100 76.2 128.5 72.7 239.7 92.0 84.4 26.9 42.1 61.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 68.4 120.7 67.3 257.6 92.0 84.7 18.9 32.9 51.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 96.9 119.6 79.3 175.1 83.5 77.1 47.5 65.5 85.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 67.7 133.3 67.2 259.2 94.6 86.5 20.3 33.9 51.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------