***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 17.3 19.2 0.2 53.2 53.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.1 19.2 0.1 51.3 51.2 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.5 19.3 0.3 56.3 55.3 17.4 18.2 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 14.2 13.3 17.1 -0.4 40.2 42.2 12.9 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.2 16.9 -0.3 43.8 45.4 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 12.7 13.0 15.0 -0.5 38.2 41.1 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.7 16.3 19.1 -0.1 48.5 49.1 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.8 14.8 -0.5 38.9 41.5 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.8 17.4 0.0 49.9 50.3 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.4 15.6 -0.3 43.2 44.9 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.2 16.4 -0.2 45.2 46.7 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.2 15.9 -0.3 43.5 45.2 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.3 15.5 -0.2 44.8 46.3 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.6 16.1 17.2 -0.2 45.0 46.4 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 16.1 16.8 18.0 -0.2 44.4 45.4 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.7 16.1 -0.3 42.9 44.9 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 17.1 16.8 18.8 0.0 50.2 50.4 16.1 16.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.5 14.7 -0.4 39.5 42.0 13.2 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.3 19.3 0.2 54.4 53.6 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 9.0 9.3 12.8 -0.7 33.2 37.1 9.3 10.0 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.9 18.5 0.1 53.0 52.7 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 16.0 15.9 18.9 0.2 53.4 52.8 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.9 15.9 19.1 0.3 55.9 54.7 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.1 17.0 -0.1 48.5 49.0 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.8 17.6 0.0 50.0 50.2 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 13.7 14.2 15.4 -0.4 40.9 43.1 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.9 18.3 0.0 50.9 51.0 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 15.0 14.2 17.4 -0.4 39.5 41.7 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 12.4 12.7 14.0 -0.6 36.1 39.3 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 16.7 16.5 19.4 0.1 52.3 52.1 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------