***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 17.4 19.3 0.8 69.2 62.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.6 19.4 0.8 66.5 61.5 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 19.0 19.2 19.5 1.0 73.9 66.0 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.4 17.1 0.0 51.0 50.9 12.4 13.3 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.9 15.0 17.0 0.3 57.2 55.2 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.7 15.1 0.1 52.7 51.8 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.6 19.3 0.6 63.6 59.6 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.8 15.3 0.5 62.4 58.2 8.3 9.1 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.5 17.6 0.7 66.8 61.9 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.4 15.9 0.6 65.2 60.4 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.8 16.6 0.4 60.6 57.2 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.0 16.1 0.4 60.1 56.7 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.9 15.3 0.1 53.0 51.7 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 17.1 17.2 17.6 0.9 69.8 64.0 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 17.1 17.2 18.2 0.3 57.1 55.0 16.2 16.9 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.5 16.4 16.1 0.2 53.8 52.3 15.5 16.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.7 17.1 18.8 0.7 64.6 60.7 15.5 16.3 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.8 15.2 0.6 64.3 59.8 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 16.7 16.8 19.5 1.0 70.6 64.3 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.4 10.4 13.5 0.4 58.3 55.7 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 16.3 16.4 18.6 0.8 69.2 63.1 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.2 18.9 0.8 68.5 63.6 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 16.2 16.5 19.3 1.1 74.9 67.2 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 16.9 17.0 17.4 0.9 71.5 64.8 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.4 17.7 0.6 64.1 59.6 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 14.0 14.7 15.1 -0.2 45.7 46.1 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 17.2 17.0 18.4 0.7 65.9 60.6 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.7 17.4 0.0 50.5 50.2 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.7 14.5 0.5 62.3 58.6 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 17.1 17.0 19.6 0.8 67.8 62.1 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------