***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 16.4 19.0 0.4 62.5 58.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 15.9 16.1 19.0 0.4 61.5 58.0 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 18.6 18.6 19.2 0.7 71.9 65.6 17.6 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.5 16.8 -0.1 45.0 45.7 13.1 13.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.4 16.8 0.1 52.9 51.8 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.3 14.8 -0.1 48.0 48.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.2 18.9 0.2 56.9 54.7 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.3 9.1 14.7 -0.1 48.0 48.1 8.7 9.1 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.8 17.2 0.3 59.5 56.7 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 15.6 15.6 15.5 0.1 55.0 53.3 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.2 16.2 0.0 51.4 50.5 14.7 15.1 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.3 15.5 0.0 49.7 49.3 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.6 15.3 0.2 57.7 55.6 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.2 16.4 17.2 0.3 61.9 58.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 16.9 16.7 17.9 0.0 49.4 49.1 16.2 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.0 16.0 0.1 53.9 52.7 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.6 16.7 18.4 0.3 58.2 55.8 16.0 16.5 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 14.0 13.9 14.6 0.1 52.7 51.6 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.3 19.1 0.6 68.3 63.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.7 12.7 -0.2 43.7 45.1 9.4 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.7 18.3 0.4 62.8 58.8 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.5 15.8 18.7 0.5 66.7 62.4 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 15.7 15.8 19.0 0.8 74.2 67.4 14.9 15.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.2 17.0 0.4 64.7 60.2 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.7 17.5 0.2 56.2 53.8 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.7 14.5 15.1 0.0 49.7 49.2 14.2 14.5 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.9 18.1 0.2 57.4 54.7 15.1 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 14.6 14.2 17.2 -0.2 44.4 45.3 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.2 14.0 0.0 51.6 51.0 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.5 19.2 0.4 63.7 59.6 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------