***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 9999.0 29.9 29.9 1.2 65.3 63.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 29.4 30.0 29.9 1.0 63.2 61.7 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 30.3 30.4 30.3 1.5 68.7 66.4 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 23.0 23.4 27.7 0.7 60.0 58.6 21.1 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 30.1 30.8 28.3 1.0 63.3 61.4 28.1 29.6 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.5 24.9 0.1 52.1 51.9 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.2 29.4 0.5 57.1 56.3 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 18.4 18.5 25.8 0.6 57.9 56.7 16.7 17.9 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 45 55 100 30.5 30.5 29.2 1.3 66.9 64.4 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 29.4 30.2 27.1 1.1 64.2 61.9 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 29.7 30.2 27.7 0.8 61.0 59.4 27.7 29.2 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 29.0 29.2 27.0 0.6 58.4 57.1 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 30.1 30.3 27.0 0.7 59.1 57.7 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 29.2 29.9 28.2 1.0 63.6 61.8 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 30.6 30.9 29.4 0.6 59.2 57.9 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 30.8 31.2 27.6 0.8 60.8 59.1 28.8 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.7 29.3 29.4 0.9 62.6 61.2 27.2 28.4 29.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 28.6 28.9 25.7 0.7 59.3 57.9 26.8 28.1 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 29.9 29.8 30.2 1.4 67.4 65.5 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.6 24.4 23.4 0.3 54.4 53.7 22.7 24.1 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 29.5 30.3 29.9 1.2 64.8 62.8 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 30.1 30.2 29.8 1.3 67.9 65.9 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 30.2 30.2 30.2 1.6 70.2 67.8 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 28.9 29.6 28.0 1.0 62.9 61.1 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 29.8 30.0 28.3 0.6 58.6 57.5 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 29.8 29.6 26.4 0.2 53.3 53.1 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.3 28.8 0.6 58.7 57.6 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.7 30.8 28.3 0.5 57.5 56.4 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 24.0 24.2 24.7 0.6 57.8 56.5 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 29.1 29.8 30.1 1.1 63.7 62.1 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------