***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2013.-04.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 30.4 29.9 0.3 55.0 53.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.8 29.9 0.3 54.0 53.5 28.4 29.6 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 30.1 30.1 30.1 0.5 57.1 55.1 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 21.2 22.6 28.3 -0.2 46.5 46.8 21.6 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 28.6 30.2 28.2 0.0 49.9 49.5 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 27.3 28.5 25.8 -0.3 45.9 46.5 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.5 29.6 0.1 51.0 51.2 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 16.7 18.0 26.3 -0.1 48.3 48.6 16.9 18.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 30.3 30.1 28.6 0.3 54.6 52.9 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.6 27.0 0.1 51.6 50.9 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 30.3 29.8 27.7 0.1 51.3 50.6 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 27.5 29.0 27.5 0.0 50.3 50.0 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 28.5 30.0 27.1 -0.1 49.1 49.1 28.8 30.0 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.7 29.5 27.9 0.2 53.8 52.5 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 29.3 30.7 29.1 0.0 49.8 49.0 29.5 30.7 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 29.2 30.6 27.5 -0.1 48.4 48.5 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.3 29.5 0.3 54.3 53.7 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 28.8 28.4 26.0 0.0 50.0 49.8 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.6 30.1 0.4 56.9 55.4 28.0 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.9 23.9 23.6 -0.4 43.9 45.4 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 30.2 30.1 29.5 0.3 54.8 53.1 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.9 29.9 29.6 0.4 56.7 55.1 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.7 29.8 29.8 0.6 59.0 56.6 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 29.5 29.3 28.0 0.3 54.7 53.2 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 30.5 30.1 28.4 0.1 52.1 51.1 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 27.9 29.0 26.9 -0.5 42.7 44.6 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.7 29.0 0.2 52.9 52.0 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 29.2 30.3 28.5 -0.3 46.0 46.5 29.5 30.6 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 24.4 23.8 24.9 -0.1 48.3 48.6 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.7 30.0 0.3 54.3 53.5 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------