***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 9999.0 31.0 31.1 2.0 76.7 69.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 30.5 31.1 31.3 2.2 78.5 70.8 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 30.4 31.1 31.4 2.2 79.5 71.5 27.5 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 23.4 23.1 29.4 1.1 66.2 62.4 20.6 21.9 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 30.9 30.9 29.3 1.4 69.5 64.6 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 28.6 29.0 26.6 0.8 62.4 58.7 26.8 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 30.2 30.7 30.9 1.9 76.3 69.1 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 18.7 18.7 27.4 1.2 68.6 63.3 16.4 17.5 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 30.4 30.7 29.7 1.8 74.3 67.8 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 30.0 30.2 28.2 1.6 72.2 65.9 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 30.4 30.5 28.8 1.4 70.4 64.7 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 29.6 29.5 28.6 1.3 69.0 63.5 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 30.8 30.6 28.1 1.1 66.5 61.6 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 30.1 30.8 29.3 2.1 79.3 70.8 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 31.1 30.9 30.1 1.2 68.3 64.0 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 31.5 31.3 28.5 1.1 66.8 62.1 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 29.8 30.5 30.9 2.1 79.0 71.1 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 29.0 29.2 27.3 1.6 73.2 66.4 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 30.0 30.9 31.5 2.4 80.7 72.4 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 25.0 24.9 24.9 1.1 66.9 61.8 22.6 23.8 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 30.5 30.9 30.7 1.9 75.4 68.7 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 30.4 31.4 31.1 2.4 81.5 73.0 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 30.0 31.0 31.3 2.5 82.6 73.7 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 29.8 30.4 29.3 2.1 78.4 70.3 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 30.6 30.9 29.6 1.7 73.3 67.1 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 27.7 29.9 27.9 0.6 60.2 57.3 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 30.2 30.6 30.2 1.8 75.1 68.2 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 30.9 30.6 29.6 1.0 64.8 61.3 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 24.5 24.7 26.1 1.5 72.3 65.5 21.9 23.1 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 30.3 30.9 31.4 2.1 78.1 70.5 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------