***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 9999.0 31.4 31.1 1.9 73.2 66.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 30.7 31.1 31.0 1.9 72.7 66.1 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 30.7 31.3 31.3 2.1 74.9 68.2 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 23.1 24.1 29.5 1.4 68.3 63.7 21.3 22.6 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 31.6 31.8 29.4 1.6 69.7 64.7 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 29.1 30.0 26.9 1.3 67.4 62.7 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 30.3 30.6 30.6 1.7 70.9 64.6 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.2 19.1 27.5 1.5 68.5 63.3 16.6 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 30.7 31.1 29.8 1.9 72.4 66.6 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 30.5 30.8 28.3 1.7 70.7 65.0 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 31.1 31.3 29.0 1.7 70.7 65.3 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 30.3 30.5 28.8 1.6 69.6 64.4 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 31.5 31.6 28.3 1.5 69.0 64.1 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 30.5 30.8 29.2 1.9 71.8 65.9 27.8 29.1 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 31.5 31.7 30.3 1.6 71.3 66.1 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 32.1 32.3 28.8 1.5 69.0 64.1 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 30.0 30.3 30.4 1.7 71.1 64.6 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 28.6 29.6 27.3 1.7 69.5 63.9 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 30.4 30.9 31.3 2.1 74.5 67.7 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.5 24.9 1.3 65.6 60.7 22.9 24.3 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 30.7 31.2 30.7 1.9 72.8 66.8 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 30.6 31.0 30.6 1.9 72.7 65.9 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 30.4 31.0 31.1 2.3 75.8 68.9 28.0 29.1 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 30.1 30.6 29.2 2.0 72.8 66.6 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 31.0 31.3 29.7 1.7 71.7 65.8 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 30.2 30.9 28.2 1.2 65.0 61.1 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 30.5 30.9 30.1 1.8 71.8 65.6 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 30.6 31.5 29.8 1.4 68.2 63.7 29.0 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 24.1 25.1 26.1 1.5 68.4 62.8 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 30.6 31.0 31.2 2.0 73.2 66.6 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------