***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 30.3 30.5 1.3 75.5 69.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 30.1 30.4 30.5 1.3 75.0 69.5 28.5 29.2 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 30.1 30.6 30.8 1.6 78.9 72.5 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 22.8 23.3 28.7 0.8 65.3 61.6 21.6 22.5 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 42 58 100 30.8 30.9 28.8 1.0 69.6 64.8 29.0 29.9 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 28.7 29.0 26.1 0.5 60.5 57.5 27.6 28.5 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 29.7 29.9 30.1 1.1 70.6 66.0 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 18.1 18.5 26.7 0.8 66.5 61.7 17.1 17.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 30.2 30.5 29.3 1.3 75.2 69.1 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 30.0 30.2 27.7 1.1 72.0 66.2 28.2 29.0 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 30.4 30.5 28.3 1.0 70.0 64.7 28.5 29.4 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 29.0 29.6 28.0 0.9 67.8 62.8 27.8 28.7 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 30.1 30.6 27.6 0.8 66.4 62.0 28.9 29.8 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 29.8 30.3 28.6 1.3 76.0 69.4 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 30.5 31.0 29.7 0.9 67.4 63.4 29.5 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 30.8 31.4 28.1 0.8 66.9 62.4 29.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 29.5 29.8 30.0 1.3 74.7 69.4 27.8 28.6 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 28.9 29.0 26.6 1.0 69.9 64.3 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 29.8 30.3 30.8 1.6 78.7 72.5 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.7 24.2 0.6 62.2 58.1 23.3 24.1 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 30.3 30.6 30.2 1.3 75.0 69.1 28.5 29.3 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 30.1 30.6 30.3 1.5 78.9 72.7 28.2 29.1 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 29.8 30.4 30.6 1.7 81.5 74.6 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 29.6 29.9 28.6 1.3 75.9 69.3 27.8 28.6 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 30.4 30.6 29.0 1.0 70.7 65.6 28.7 29.5 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 29.7 29.8 27.3 0.4 58.4 55.8 28.6 29.4 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 29.9 30.0 29.5 1.1 71.7 66.5 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 30.4 30.8 29.1 0.7 63.6 60.2 29.4 30.2 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 23.8 24.4 25.5 0.9 68.3 62.7 22.7 23.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 29.9 30.3 30.7 1.4 75.2 69.6 28.3 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------