***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-28.07.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 6.7 6.2 43.0 42.3 34.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.2 5.9 7.3 53.0 48.2 38.5 2.8 6.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.4 4.3 5.8 40.9 40.7 34.0 2.7 6.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.8 5.5 5.3 38.7 39.6 30.1 3.9 9.1 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 2.3 3.6 5.3 38.7 39.7 30.5 2.6 5.8 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 2.9 4.3 5.3 36.4 36.6 28.2 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.9 7.0 7.5 53.8 48.1 38.0 3.6 7.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 5.0 7.7 5.5 40.0 39.6 31.4 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 2.1 3.6 5.3 38.4 39.8 30.3 2.4 5.8 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 3.7 5.6 6.0 38.8 39.5 31.7 3.8 9.3 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 2.2 3.3 4.3 36.0 38.0 29.5 2.5 5.7 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 2.2 3.1 3.9 35.2 36.6 27.7 2.6 6.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 2.0 2.7 4.0 32.3 35.1 27.1 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 5.0 6.9 7.2 45.3 40.2 34.2 4.7 10.7 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 2.2 4.0 5.0 41.9 41.1 30.8 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 2.1 3.0 4.0 33.1 35.8 27.9 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.2 9.8 7.7 59.2 51.1 40.2 4.5 9.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 4.3 5.9 7.3 41.8 39.6 33.0 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.3 8.2 7.0 50.8 46.7 38.1 4.1 9.2 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 3.0 4.5 7.3 43.0 39.2 31.6 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.0 5.4 5.3 38.1 39.6 31.3 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 14.7 10.7 7.4 57.2 49.5 39.9 5.5 10.8 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.1 5.5 6.4 46.9 43.1 36.1 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.5 4.8 6.6 41.0 38.8 33.1 3.5 8.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.6 5.2 6.6 42.1 39.9 32.8 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 2.4 2.7 2.7 26.7 28.6 22.0 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.0 5.8 6.9 43.6 41.8 34.3 3.8 8.2 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 3.0 4.9 4.7 37.0 38.7 28.9 3.6 8.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 5.9 8.1 7.5 42.7 39.5 32.9 6.1 12.6 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.0 7.6 6.8 48.3 46.2 37.3 4.3 8.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------