***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2013.-11.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 9999.0 4.1 4.0 52.7 48.4 28.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 2.7 4.5 3.2 39.3 37.7 26.6 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 2.6 5.7 3.7 45.2 43.4 26.5 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 3.8 11.6 4.3 56.8 50.6 27.1 5.7 11.4 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 2.7 8.0 4.7 62.7 53.4 28.2 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 3.7 11.6 6.1 67.6 54.1 34.2 5.0 10.0 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 2.4 3.7 3.2 37.8 37.3 26.5 3.1 6.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 4.9 14.0 5.5 72.6 54.8 30.3 6.4 11.9 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 3.7 9.7 4.7 58.7 51.5 28.3 4.8 9.3 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 4.2 10.6 5.4 61.5 50.7 29.3 5.2 10.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 4.1 12.0 4.6 74.3 56.4 28.3 5.7 10.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 3.1 10.9 4.5 81.6 58.4 28.3 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 1.9 10.0 5.0 76.0 57.6 30.4 3.0 7.3 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 3.4 5.2 4.0 37.5 38.0 26.6 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 3.1 8.7 3.3 52.6 48.8 26.0 4.4 9.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 2.8 9.8 4.6 73.5 56.9 29.5 4.2 7.9 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 2.8 4.3 3.1 36.9 37.2 27.4 3.4 7.5 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 4.2 8.1 5.8 52.7 46.3 29.7 5.0 9.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 3.0 5.2 3.2 39.8 39.0 26.6 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 4.0 9.0 6.9 63.9 50.7 32.9 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 3.4 8.9 4.1 55.3 49.7 27.8 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 3.5 5.5 3.5 41.8 40.3 29.1 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 2.8 4.6 3.1 37.4 38.8 25.8 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 4.3 7.9 4.4 42.5 41.4 26.9 5.3 11.1 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 2.7 7.3 4.9 54.1 48.8 28.4 3.8 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 3.2 11.8 4.0 79.9 58.6 31.3 4.7 8.9 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 3.5 8.0 4.7 52.4 48.0 29.0 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 2.4 7.9 3.9 58.9 51.1 27.3 3.6 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 7.2 12.3 6.1 55.3 46.8 30.7 7.9 13.6 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 1.8 3.3 3.4 41.8 39.4 26.3 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------