***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 3.7 2.1 41.1 42.6 27.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.0 4.0 3.0 45.8 44.5 29.5 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 2.3 4.7 2.7 51.1 46.1 30.0 2.5 5.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 1.6 2.7 2.1 36.0 40.2 23.6 1.8 4.2 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 1.0 2.0 2.1 36.8 40.0 23.4 1.4 3.0 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 70 30 0 100 1.6 4.2 3.9 51.5 50.0 30.2 1.8 4.2 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 1.8 2.9 2.8 40.3 41.2 28.5 1.9 4.4 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 81 19 0 100 2.6 6.2 3.1 44.1 43.2 25.3 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 1.4 3.0 2.3 40.7 40.7 23.9 2.0 4.3 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 2.1 5.1 3.3 46.6 44.4 26.0 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 1.2 2.6 2.2 40.1 41.0 23.0 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 1.2 2.3 1.9 36.2 38.6 22.0 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 1.1 2.4 2.5 42.5 45.0 27.2 1.4 3.0 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 3.9 7.2 3.7 48.2 45.5 30.3 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 1.3 2.5 1.9 36.3 41.3 23.9 1.7 3.9 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 0.8 1.9 2.4 41.5 44.2 25.9 1.1 2.5 4.7 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 1.4 2.6 3.1 43.8 43.3 30.3 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 2.3 4.7 4.3 51.2 46.6 29.2 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 2.3 4.7 3.0 48.2 45.9 29.8 2.7 5.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 76 24 0 100 2.3 5.5 4.8 50.0 46.2 30.4 3.0 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 2.2 3.9 1.9 41.5 40.8 24.8 2.6 5.7 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 1.7 3.5 3.4 49.2 46.7 31.9 2.0 3.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 2.3 4.6 3.0 49.1 46.8 29.8 2.8 5.1 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 3.5 6.8 3.7 53.2 47.3 30.3 3.9 7.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 2.0 3.6 2.4 40.8 42.5 28.7 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 1.3 2.2 1.6 32.1 37.2 24.5 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 2.5 4.5 2.5 40.6 42.5 29.1 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 1.2 2.6 2.2 37.2 42.1 24.2 1.5 3.5 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 2.5 5.7 4.6 51.3 46.8 29.5 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 2.3 4.8 2.9 46.6 44.8 29.3 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------