***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2013.-18.08.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 27.7 25.1 69.6 45.7 40.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 24.3 33.6 26.2 69.7 45.2 40.0 23.7 38.1 56.6 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 24.8 35.6 24.2 65.9 43.3 38.8 27.2 41.4 58.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 25.6 36.7 22.7 63.6 44.7 39.2 25.9 41.9 62.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 17.0 26.6 23.7 66.9 46.7 40.6 17.4 29.0 44.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 24.7 39.1 30.5 74.2 50.1 42.7 24.8 39.1 56.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 40.5 27.7 26.4 67.6 44.0 39.1 19.8 32.5 48.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 38.5 57.2 28.0 74.5 49.4 42.4 40.2 57.8 78.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 23.9 35.1 24.4 67.4 47.2 40.9 24.6 37.4 53.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 26.3 40.8 28.6 69.3 46.5 40.5 26.9 44.9 67.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 19.3 32.0 22.1 71.8 49.4 42.0 19.4 32.5 49.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 19.8 33.3 20.9 72.4 50.4 42.5 19.6 33.0 50.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 17.7 28.8 22.8 70.3 49.6 41.9 17.9 29.1 43.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 32.2 41.8 29.9 65.6 42.3 38.6 32.4 50.2 72.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 19.1 28.2 19.0 62.1 45.2 38.8 19.6 31.8 47.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 16.4 26.4 22.4 70.4 49.5 42.2 16.5 26.8 39.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 31.8 39.0 25.2 67.4 43.0 38.6 32.2 44.1 57.7 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 31.4 41.9 33.4 67.0 44.1 39.5 32.2 47.4 65.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 24.8 35.5 25.6 68.9 44.9 39.9 24.3 40.7 62.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 31.6 41.0 36.4 72.2 46.4 41.4 31.5 43.6 57.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 27.0 39.4 22.7 67.1 46.1 40.2 29.2 42.7 58.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 28.5 36.3 25.4 68.2 42.9 38.7 29.5 41.4 55.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 22.8 32.2 24.9 66.6 44.3 39.7 23.5 37.1 54.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 37.5 46.7 28.8 64.1 42.3 38.3 38.7 53.9 71.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 25.5 35.7 27.4 67.6 44.5 39.3 27.2 40.2 56.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 19.2 30.2 17.0 65.4 46.5 38.9 20.9 32.8 47.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 27.5 38.5 28.4 68.8 45.0 39.8 27.9 43.2 62.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 19.1 28.4 21.2 64.2 46.2 39.8 18.2 32.0 49.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 44.8 58.0 34.8 69.0 44.6 40.1 46.2 63.8 84.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 20.2 29.8 26.2 69.5 45.7 40.3 19.9 33.6 51.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------