***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 16.1 16.2 19.2 0.4 57.1 56.5 15.2 15.9 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 16.0 16.7 19.5 0.9 65.7 64.2 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 87 13 100 18.1 18.7 19.8 0.8 63.8 62.8 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 14.7 15.0 17.5 1.1 71.0 69.2 12.5 13.6 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 14.4 14.8 17.7 0.6 63.2 62.0 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 13.3 13.7 14.8 0.6 63.5 62.0 12.5 13.2 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 16.3 16.8 19.5 0.7 63.3 62.1 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 9.1 9.7 15.1 0.8 66.2 64.6 8.1 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 15.7 16.2 18.0 0.7 65.4 64.0 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 16.0 16.2 16.2 1.0 70.1 68.1 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 15.2 15.5 17.5 0.6 62.0 60.8 14.2 15.0 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 13.4 13.9 16.3 0.7 64.4 63.1 12.5 13.3 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 14.5 14.5 16.0 0.2 54.9 54.3 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 16.3 16.6 17.3 0.6 61.8 60.7 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 16.9 17.4 19.4 0.7 64.6 63.3 15.9 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 15.8 16.1 16.9 0.5 61.5 60.2 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 46 54 100 17.5 17.7 19.7 1.3 71.8 69.8 15.9 16.7 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 14.5 14.6 15.4 0.9 68.4 66.6 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 49 51 100 16.5 16.7 19.8 1.0 68.3 66.7 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 10.4 10.5 13.6 0.9 69.1 67.1 9.0 9.7 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 15.5 15.8 18.8 0.5 60.8 59.8 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 16.3 16.6 19.9 1.3 72.6 70.6 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 16.1 16.2 19.8 1.1 69.5 68.0 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 16.0 16.5 17.5 0.6 63.2 62.1 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 15.4 15.2 17.9 0.0 50.0 49.8 14.4 15.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 14.5 14.4 14.7 0.1 51.2 51.2 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 15.4 15.4 18.4 0.1 52.5 52.1 14.2 15.2 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 15.1 15.3 18.1 1.0 70.9 68.9 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 47 53 100 14.0 14.2 14.7 0.9 69.9 68.0 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 16.3 16.8 19.7 0.8 64.4 63.2 15.3 16.1 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------