***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 16.4 16.9 20.0 0.8 67.6 63.0 15.3 16.1 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 17.0 17.0 19.9 0.8 67.8 63.2 15.2 16.1 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 19.1 19.1 20.3 0.8 68.0 63.5 17.4 18.2 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 15.1 15.4 17.9 1.1 76.6 71.1 12.9 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 15.4 15.4 18.0 0.7 68.3 64.3 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 14.2 14.4 15.4 0.7 70.9 66.3 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.7 17.1 19.9 0.7 66.0 61.8 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.6 10.0 15.3 0.5 64.0 60.3 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 16.6 16.7 18.1 0.8 70.3 65.8 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 16.4 16.5 16.3 0.7 68.2 63.5 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.9 17.5 0.5 62.6 59.4 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.1 16.5 0.5 63.2 60.4 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 14.8 14.9 15.9 0.3 57.3 56.3 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.6 16.8 17.5 0.4 60.8 58.5 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.9 18.1 19.6 0.9 72.7 68.4 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 16.8 16.7 16.9 0.5 64.1 61.4 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 17.7 17.8 19.8 1.0 70.6 64.7 16.1 16.8 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.6 15.3 0.5 64.6 61.0 13.2 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 16.9 16.9 20.0 0.8 68.3 63.6 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.8 13.3 0.6 65.5 61.7 9.3 10.0 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 43 57 100 16.5 16.5 19.2 0.7 66.8 63.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 16.6 16.7 19.9 1.0 71.3 65.0 14.9 15.7 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.4 20.0 0.8 67.4 62.8 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.6 17.5 0.5 62.5 59.7 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.6 18.8 0.8 67.0 62.7 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.8 15.2 15.4 0.5 64.3 61.5 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 17.0 17.0 19.4 0.8 67.5 63.0 14.8 15.9 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 15.6 15.8 18.4 1.0 75.7 70.5 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.7 14.1 14.6 0.5 64.5 60.8 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 17.2 17.2 20.2 0.8 67.2 62.8 15.6 16.4 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------