***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.4 19.5 0.5 59.2 56.2 15.2 16.0 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 14.5 16.1 19.3 0.4 58.1 54.9 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.3 18.5 19.9 0.5 60.7 57.4 17.0 17.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 14.4 14.3 17.4 0.8 67.0 63.1 12.4 13.3 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.1 17.1 0.4 59.8 57.8 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 14.3 14.1 15.3 0.5 64.3 61.9 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.3 16.3 19.3 0.3 56.3 53.7 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.3 14.8 0.1 52.8 53.7 8.3 9.1 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.3 17.1 0.5 62.0 59.4 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.1 15.6 0.4 58.8 57.8 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.6 16.7 0.2 55.9 55.5 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.7 15.7 0.1 51.7 53.0 13.0 13.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.0 14.8 0.2 55.1 55.8 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.6 16.4 16.7 0.1 51.5 51.8 15.6 16.3 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.6 17.5 18.8 0.7 66.0 62.9 16.2 16.9 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.5 16.7 16.0 0.4 60.3 59.0 15.5 16.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.8 19.1 0.5 59.0 55.4 15.5 16.3 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.5 14.4 14.5 0.2 56.4 56.2 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.9 16.2 19.4 0.4 58.6 55.5 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.2 12.1 0.1 53.4 54.4 9.4 10.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.9 18.5 0.5 60.2 57.8 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.7 15.9 19.0 0.5 60.5 56.8 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.6 19.3 0.3 56.2 54.2 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.3 16.7 0.2 55.6 55.0 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.2 18.0 0.5 59.8 57.3 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.2 14.8 0.3 58.3 58.4 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.6 18.7 0.5 59.9 56.9 14.8 15.9 17.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 15.6 15.5 17.8 0.8 68.8 64.9 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.3 13.9 0.2 54.0 54.4 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.4 16.5 19.6 0.4 58.1 55.0 15.1 16.0 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------