***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 15.8 16.0 19.2 0.5 59.9 57.7 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.9 19.1 0.6 61.2 58.7 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.3 18.6 19.6 0.7 62.8 59.7 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 15.0 15.1 17.3 1.0 71.5 66.5 12.8 13.8 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.7 16.9 0.7 64.0 60.8 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 13.8 13.8 15.2 0.8 68.4 63.5 12.5 13.1 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.1 19.1 0.5 59.0 57.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.6 14.8 0.6 62.2 59.1 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 16.1 15.9 17.0 0.7 64.9 61.4 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 16.0 15.8 15.5 0.7 64.9 61.3 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.2 16.6 0.6 62.3 59.5 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.3 15.6 0.5 60.4 58.0 12.2 12.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.4 14.6 0.4 60.3 58.0 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.0 16.5 0.3 56.5 55.7 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 17.0 17.2 18.7 1.0 71.6 66.4 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.4 15.8 0.7 65.0 61.2 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.6 18.9 0.7 62.8 59.9 15.4 16.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 14.2 14.1 14.3 0.6 64.8 61.5 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.0 19.2 0.6 61.0 58.6 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.7 10.0 12.1 0.6 64.6 61.2 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.3 15.6 18.3 0.6 62.8 59.8 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.4 18.8 0.7 62.4 59.7 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.2 19.0 0.4 58.1 56.5 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.9 16.4 0.5 61.4 59.1 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.8 17.7 0.6 62.1 59.4 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.7 14.5 0.4 60.1 57.8 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.0 16.2 18.3 0.5 60.1 57.7 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 14.8 14.9 17.6 1.1 72.4 67.0 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 14.0 13.8 13.8 0.6 64.3 61.2 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.3 19.3 0.5 60.3 58.1 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------