***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 16.3 16.3 19.5 0.5 66.9 63.3 15.4 15.9 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.5 19.5 0.7 70.9 65.9 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 18.5 18.6 19.9 0.7 70.9 66.7 17.6 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 14.4 14.8 17.5 1.0 81.9 76.4 13.1 13.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 14.9 15.0 17.4 0.6 71.2 67.2 13.9 14.3 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 13.8 14.0 15.2 0.7 76.0 71.0 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 16.6 16.5 19.4 0.6 67.3 63.5 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 9.5 9.5 15.0 0.5 68.3 65.1 8.7 9.1 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.2 17.6 0.7 73.9 69.2 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 16.0 16.1 15.9 0.7 74.6 69.8 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 15.6 15.6 17.1 0.5 66.9 63.7 14.7 15.1 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 13.8 13.7 16.0 0.5 66.1 63.7 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 14.6 14.7 15.3 0.3 61.6 60.1 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.4 17.0 0.3 62.6 60.0 15.7 16.1 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 17.4 17.7 19.1 0.8 77.8 73.4 16.2 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.5 16.4 0.5 70.2 66.7 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 17.0 17.2 19.4 0.8 75.6 69.8 16.0 16.5 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 14.3 14.5 14.9 0.6 72.5 68.1 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 16.3 16.4 19.6 0.7 72.1 67.1 15.4 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 10.3 10.4 12.8 0.6 72.7 69.1 9.4 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 15.8 15.9 18.7 0.6 69.5 65.5 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 15.9 16.0 19.4 0.9 75.9 70.2 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 15.7 15.7 19.5 0.6 70.1 66.0 14.9 15.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.3 17.0 0.5 67.3 63.6 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.9 18.1 0.5 64.9 62.1 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 15.0 14.8 14.8 0.3 63.3 61.3 14.2 14.5 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.2 18.7 0.5 65.2 62.2 15.1 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 15.1 15.5 18.0 1.0 82.5 76.9 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 13.7 13.8 14.2 0.5 72.3 68.2 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 16.6 16.6 19.7 0.6 69.2 64.9 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------