***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 30.5 30.7 30.8 1.7 70.5 69.1 27.7 29.1 30.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 30.4 30.8 31.3 2.0 72.4 70.7 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 30.4 30.6 31.3 1.9 70.9 69.6 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 24.6 25.2 28.7 2.5 78.6 76.7 21.1 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 48 52 100 31.0 31.2 29.2 1.5 67.7 66.8 28.1 29.6 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 28.6 29.4 26.3 1.1 63.6 62.7 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 30.0 30.2 30.8 1.7 70.4 68.8 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 18.2 18.7 26.4 0.9 60.2 59.6 16.7 17.9 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 30.8 31.0 30.4 1.9 72.2 70.9 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 30.5 30.6 27.9 1.6 68.4 67.3 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 29.5 30.3 29.4 1.1 61.9 61.2 27.7 29.2 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 28.7 29.2 27.9 0.7 58.4 57.9 27.0 28.5 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 29.8 30.2 28.8 0.6 57.2 56.8 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 88 12 100 29.0 30.2 29.2 1.5 67.4 66.2 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 31.7 31.9 31.6 1.8 72.3 70.8 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 30.6 31.3 29.0 1.0 61.9 61.3 28.8 30.3 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 29.8 30.3 31.1 2.3 75.7 73.5 27.2 28.4 29.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 28.4 29.3 26.4 1.3 65.0 64.0 26.8 28.1 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 30.0 30.4 31.5 2.1 73.9 72.2 27.2 28.5 29.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 24.3 24.9 24.1 0.8 60.2 59.6 22.7 24.1 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 30.6 30.8 30.8 1.7 69.6 68.5 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 30.5 31.0 31.1 2.4 77.3 75.2 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 30.3 30.6 31.6 2.2 74.0 72.4 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 48 52 100 29.8 29.9 29.1 1.5 66.8 65.7 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 29.6 30.7 29.5 1.3 66.2 65.1 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 29.5 29.6 27.2 0.3 53.4 53.2 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 46 54 100 29.9 30.1 30.0 1.5 68.3 67.0 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 31.8 32.2 29.9 2.1 75.3 73.5 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 89 11 100 23.8 24.7 25.6 1.2 64.6 63.7 22.2 23.5 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 30.1 30.3 31.1 1.8 70.8 69.4 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------