***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 31.4 31.1 31.2 1.2 68.7 64.8 28.4 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 31.0 30.8 31.4 1.3 68.6 63.9 28.4 29.6 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 31.3 31.1 31.8 1.4 70.0 65.5 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 24.8 25.4 29.4 2.0 79.8 73.0 21.6 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 32.0 31.9 29.9 1.4 70.5 66.8 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 30.4 30.5 27.1 1.3 71.2 67.0 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 30.9 30.6 31.0 1.0 66.1 62.1 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 19.5 19.2 27.7 1.2 66.6 63.9 16.9 18.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 31.5 31.6 30.6 1.6 73.2 68.6 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 31.2 31.2 28.7 1.6 72.5 67.9 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 26 74 100 31.5 31.1 30.0 1.2 67.1 64.7 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 30.5 30.1 29.1 1.0 64.7 62.9 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 31.5 31.0 29.1 0.9 62.5 61.6 28.8 30.0 31.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 30.6 30.1 29.2 0.8 62.2 60.2 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 32.3 32.4 31.4 1.5 73.7 69.1 29.5 30.7 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 32.4 32.2 29.6 1.2 67.8 65.3 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 30.5 30.5 31.1 1.4 70.2 63.9 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 29.9 29.7 27.5 1.3 69.1 65.1 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 30.6 30.5 31.6 1.4 69.7 64.7 28.0 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 25.8 25.5 25.0 1.0 65.3 62.4 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 31.4 31.3 31.1 1.4 69.5 65.6 28.4 29.7 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 30.9 30.9 31.1 1.5 71.8 65.1 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 30.7 30.5 31.6 1.3 68.5 64.1 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 30.5 30.1 29.5 1.1 66.4 63.0 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 31.7 31.3 29.8 1.2 68.0 64.5 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 31.0 30.5 28.7 0.9 63.3 61.6 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 31.2 30.8 30.3 1.1 67.6 63.9 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 21 79 100 32.2 32.5 30.3 1.8 77.7 71.9 29.5 30.6 31.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 25.5 25.3 26.5 1.2 68.1 64.3 22.6 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 31.0 30.7 31.4 1.2 68.0 63.8 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------