***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 29.6 29.9 30.8 0.8 61.2 56.7 27.8 29.1 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 29.3 29.7 30.7 0.8 61.3 56.9 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 29.3 29.7 31.2 1.0 63.1 58.4 27.5 28.8 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 23.3 23.6 29.5 1.6 72.1 65.1 20.6 21.9 23.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 29.9 30.5 29.4 1.0 64.4 59.5 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 28.6 29.4 26.7 1.1 67.4 63.0 26.8 28.1 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.3 30.5 0.7 59.2 55.2 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.9 18.0 27.4 0.7 58.9 56.1 16.4 17.5 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.3 30.0 29.7 1.2 66.5 61.1 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 29.0 29.6 28.3 1.1 64.7 60.0 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 29.4 29.8 29.2 0.8 61.5 57.7 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.7 28.9 0.6 57.8 55.6 27.0 28.2 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 29.8 30.1 28.1 0.7 59.6 57.2 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.1 28.8 28.2 0.3 53.4 51.4 27.4 28.6 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 30.9 31.1 30.7 1.5 71.6 65.5 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 30.5 31.2 28.9 1.0 64.7 60.3 28.7 30.0 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.6 29.2 30.5 1.0 63.3 58.3 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 28.1 28.4 27.2 0.8 61.4 57.4 26.6 27.7 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 28.9 29.3 30.9 0.8 61.2 56.9 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 24.2 24.2 24.4 0.4 56.2 53.7 22.6 23.8 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 29.4 29.9 30.3 1.0 63.8 58.9 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.7 30.4 1.0 63.2 58.3 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.0 29.1 30.7 0.6 58.2 55.0 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 28.7 28.9 28.7 0.7 59.4 55.8 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 29.7 30.3 29.2 1.0 64.8 59.3 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.8 28.8 0.6 59.3 57.4 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.2 29.6 29.8 0.9 62.5 57.5 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 30.9 31.2 29.9 1.6 72.5 66.0 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.5 23.7 25.9 0.6 58.4 55.1 21.9 23.1 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.5 30.7 0.8 60.4 56.3 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------