***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 30.2 30.7 30.7 1.0 62.9 59.8 28.5 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.8 30.2 30.5 0.9 60.8 57.6 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 29.9 30.4 31.1 1.1 63.9 60.3 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 24.2 24.7 29.7 2.0 75.4 69.3 21.3 22.6 23.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 31.6 31.6 29.5 1.4 67.7 63.3 28.9 30.2 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 30.1 30.2 26.9 1.4 69.9 65.4 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.8 30.4 0.8 60.3 57.6 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 18.2 18.7 27.6 1.0 62.4 59.1 16.6 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 30.7 30.8 29.7 1.5 68.0 63.5 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 29.6 30.4 28.3 1.3 66.1 61.8 27.9 29.2 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 30.2 30.8 29.3 1.2 64.7 61.0 28.4 29.7 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 29.4 29.9 29.2 1.0 62.3 59.3 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 30.6 31.2 28.3 1.1 64.2 61.1 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.5 28.0 0.4 54.5 53.0 27.8 29.1 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 31.6 32.0 30.7 1.8 74.9 69.2 29.1 30.3 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 32.2 32.3 29.2 1.4 68.6 64.3 29.4 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 29.2 29.6 30.3 1.0 62.2 58.5 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 28.6 29.1 27.2 1.0 62.8 59.2 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.8 30.7 0.8 60.5 57.3 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 24.7 25.1 24.7 0.9 61.2 58.3 22.9 24.3 25.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 29.9 30.6 30.4 1.3 65.9 62.0 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.8 30.1 30.2 0.9 61.4 57.7 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 29.6 29.7 30.5 0.7 58.2 55.6 28.0 29.1 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.5 28.5 0.8 59.8 57.1 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 31.1 31.0 29.3 1.3 67.2 63.0 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 30.2 30.9 29.0 1.1 64.6 61.5 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 29.7 30.3 29.8 1.1 64.3 60.8 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 31.7 32.2 30.1 2.0 75.9 70.0 29.0 30.2 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 24.1 24.5 26.0 0.9 60.8 57.8 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 29.7 30.0 30.6 0.9 60.9 58.0 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------