***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 30.4 30.5 30.9 1.2 72.3 68.5 28.6 29.4 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 30.2 30.3 31.0 1.2 72.8 68.7 28.5 29.2 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 30.2 30.3 31.3 1.4 73.7 69.9 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 23.7 24.5 29.3 2.0 85.0 79.2 21.6 22.5 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 31.0 31.2 29.5 1.3 74.3 70.4 29.0 29.9 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 29.4 29.7 26.8 1.2 75.0 71.2 27.6 28.5 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 29.9 29.9 30.7 1.0 70.3 66.6 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 18.5 18.5 27.3 0.9 66.8 64.3 17.1 17.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 30.3 30.7 30.1 1.6 77.4 72.8 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 30.1 30.4 28.3 1.4 74.6 70.5 28.2 29.0 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 30.4 30.4 29.5 1.1 69.3 66.4 28.5 29.4 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 29.5 29.4 28.8 0.8 65.2 63.2 27.8 28.7 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 30.7 30.6 28.6 0.8 65.5 63.6 28.9 29.8 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 29.8 29.6 28.7 0.7 63.8 61.7 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 31.2 31.7 31.1 1.7 80.8 76.2 29.5 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 31.6 31.7 29.2 1.2 72.0 68.6 29.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 29.7 29.9 30.8 1.4 76.1 71.0 27.8 28.6 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 29.0 29.0 27.1 1.1 70.7 67.3 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 29.8 29.9 31.2 1.3 73.4 69.2 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 25.0 24.8 24.6 0.8 65.7 63.2 23.3 24.1 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 30.4 30.5 30.6 1.3 74.1 70.1 28.5 29.3 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 30.2 30.4 30.7 1.5 76.5 71.3 28.2 29.1 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 29.8 29.8 31.1 1.2 71.1 67.6 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 29.6 29.5 29.0 1.0 68.9 65.9 27.8 28.6 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 30.6 30.7 29.4 1.2 73.0 69.2 28.7 29.5 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 30.3 30.1 28.4 0.7 64.2 62.6 28.6 29.4 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 30.0 30.1 30.0 1.1 72.1 68.3 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 31.2 31.8 30.0 1.9 83.7 78.4 29.4 30.2 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 24.5 24.4 26.0 1.0 68.9 65.8 22.7 23.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 30.0 30.0 31.0 1.2 71.4 67.8 28.3 29.0 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------