***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-28.07.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 2.3 2.1 2.9 17.5 25.9 18.6 3.3 8.0 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 1.8 2.1 2.9 18.4 27.8 20.3 2.8 6.3 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 2.0 1.7 2.9 17.3 26.5 19.0 2.7 6.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 2.6 2.4 2.9 17.5 25.6 19.4 3.9 9.1 17.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 1.8 1.5 2.5 15.1 24.6 19.0 2.6 5.8 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 2.4 3.0 4.1 26.2 29.8 22.6 3.6 8.0 14.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 2.5 2.7 3.1 19.6 27.7 20.2 3.6 7.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 4.2 3.9 3.8 19.5 26.3 21.4 5.6 11.6 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 1.9 1.7 3.1 18.4 27.2 21.2 2.4 5.8 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 3.0 2.6 3.9 19.0 27.2 21.8 3.8 9.3 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 1.7 1.5 2.4 14.3 24.1 18.1 2.5 5.7 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 1.8 1.2 2.5 16.2 23.5 18.4 2.6 6.4 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 1.4 1.2 1.8 13.0 21.7 16.7 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 3.7 3.9 4.5 22.5 29.4 22.3 4.7 10.7 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 1.5 2.1 2.8 18.6 29.2 17.8 2.6 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 1.8 1.6 2.3 15.6 22.9 17.5 2.7 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 3.5 4.0 3.5 23.4 30.5 23.0 4.5 9.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 3.3 2.9 4.7 21.9 26.4 22.1 4.2 9.2 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 2.7 3.3 3.2 19.6 29.0 20.9 4.1 9.2 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 2.5 2.7 5.4 26.0 29.1 24.9 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 2.9 2.9 3.1 18.6 27.2 20.6 4.0 8.1 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 3.7 4.4 3.1 19.6 28.5 20.6 5.5 10.8 18.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 2.5 2.7 3.4 20.4 29.6 21.9 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 71 29 0 100 3.0 2.3 3.6 19.0 26.9 21.0 3.5 8.3 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 2.6 2.1 2.8 15.8 24.4 18.3 3.5 8.0 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 84 16 0 100 2.1 2.5 2.0 17.4 26.9 18.1 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 2.8 2.3 3.0 17.1 25.0 18.5 3.8 8.2 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 2.4 2.6 3.0 18.7 27.3 19.2 3.6 8.0 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 4.6 4.4 4.6 21.9 26.6 22.4 6.1 12.6 22.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 2.7 3.2 2.9 18.2 27.8 19.2 4.3 8.9 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------