***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.07.2019.-04.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.5 14.0 12.1 110.5 68.9 44.6 3.2 6.9 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.7 16.4 10.2 98.4 65.4 45.8 4.0 9.0 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.5 13.7 12.0 104.8 66.8 44.1 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 3.0 12.6 11.7 112.6 68.9 44.2 2.9 6.2 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.0 14.7 12.6 122.9 71.6 47.2 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.3 11.8 96.8 63.3 42.9 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.3 10.5 9.6 90.3 62.6 44.9 3.0 6.6 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 4.6 16.9 12.1 102.4 65.6 43.3 4.4 9.5 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.7 14.9 13.2 114.3 69.4 45.6 3.4 7.2 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.9 14.9 13.5 109.4 67.7 44.6 3.9 8.1 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.4 14.6 11.3 113.5 68.9 45.6 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.2 12.9 10.0 105.9 67.0 43.0 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.9 11.8 11.1 117.8 70.8 48.8 2.5 5.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.0 18.6 16.0 115.3 69.7 48.5 3.3 8.1 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.0 7.8 8.8 97.0 65.1 42.5 1.9 4.4 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.3 12.2 10.6 111.2 68.7 45.5 2.8 6.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.7 14.6 10.7 96.5 64.5 46.9 4.2 8.7 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.4 19.9 15.5 107.6 67.2 46.1 4.9 10.6 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.1 15.4 11.0 103.0 66.8 45.6 3.6 8.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.7 13.7 14.5 99.3 63.5 45.7 5.7 9.6 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 3.1 12.8 11.9 104.9 66.9 42.4 2.9 6.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.5 12.0 12.2 103.0 66.8 47.3 3.4 6.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.0 14.4 12.1 107.3 67.9 45.3 2.7 6.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 4.7 16.9 15.1 114.2 69.3 48.0 4.7 9.1 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.4 15.0 13.6 118.7 70.6 49.0 2.7 6.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.9 8.8 8.5 92.5 62.4 41.5 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.7 16.5 13.4 113.8 69.5 47.3 2.8 7.4 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.1 11.0 10.0 104.8 67.3 43.4 3.0 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 6.7 21.9 16.2 105.0 65.3 46.7 6.3 12.7 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.3 11.7 10.5 100.2 66.2 44.6 3.3 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------