***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.08.2019.-11.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 4.3 13.0 7.8 89.6 63.3 44.5 4.4 8.4 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.6 11.4 8.0 94.7 64.8 47.1 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 3.6 12.5 8.2 93.0 64.4 44.8 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.2 18.9 8.6 93.3 64.9 44.3 5.7 11.4 19.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.7 11.6 7.9 97.0 65.5 45.0 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 5.4 18.3 10.5 104.0 67.4 44.2 5.0 10.0 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.2 9.4 7.8 91.3 63.8 46.8 3.1 6.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 6.0 21.7 9.9 110.1 68.7 48.6 6.4 11.9 19.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.5 15.0 8.2 95.2 65.0 42.9 4.8 9.3 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 5.2 19.1 10.5 109.4 68.7 47.4 5.2 10.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 5.4 15.7 7.0 100.2 65.8 45.7 5.7 10.0 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 4.1 13.8 7.2 101.8 66.3 46.0 4.5 8.3 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 3.3 14.1 7.7 99.3 66.4 46.2 3.0 7.3 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 4.5 19.1 15.5 132.0 74.1 52.8 4.1 8.4 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 4.2 15.1 6.6 92.2 64.9 40.2 4.4 9.0 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.2 12.4 7.0 93.6 64.5 45.9 4.2 7.9 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.0 13.5 8.6 96.1 65.5 48.1 3.4 7.5 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 12.2 17.8 14.7 123.0 72.1 53.7 5.0 9.1 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.1 15.5 9.1 107.0 68.2 48.2 4.0 8.2 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.8 16.5 13.8 115.7 69.6 54.1 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.6 14.1 7.9 90.7 64.0 42.9 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.2 16.9 11.6 125.0 72.7 50.9 4.1 7.9 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.6 14.8 10.9 122.5 72.1 48.9 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.1 24.1 13.5 124.1 72.3 52.0 5.3 11.1 19.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.7 13.5 9.4 101.1 67.4 46.4 3.8 7.6 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 4.4 14.4 6.2 96.0 64.9 42.0 4.7 8.9 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.6 13.4 9.0 97.3 65.8 46.4 4.8 8.5 13.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.7 12.8 7.4 88.8 63.7 42.6 3.6 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.3 24.3 15.3 122.0 71.3 54.9 7.9 13.6 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.6 8.0 7.9 93.4 64.5 46.4 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------