***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.08.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.3 10.5 8.0 101.1 66.4 40.2 2.1 5.2 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 2.0 13.6 9.7 131.4 73.8 42.7 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.5 11.0 8.4 107.7 68.1 41.4 2.5 5.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 1.8 6.7 6.8 83.7 61.5 35.6 1.8 4.2 8.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 1.3 5.1 6.6 89.7 62.8 36.4 1.4 3.0 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 1.7 6.3 8.3 83.6 60.9 38.7 1.8 4.2 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 1.8 10.8 9.5 127.6 72.8 43.0 1.9 4.4 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 3.7 13.1 9.5 98.4 65.3 42.0 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 1.9 6.5 7.0 86.3 61.7 37.9 2.0 4.3 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.0 10.7 9.3 92.4 63.6 41.1 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 1.7 5.9 6.8 98.8 65.1 37.5 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 1.6 6.2 7.4 101.9 66.1 38.0 1.8 3.6 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 1.3 5.1 7.4 93.8 64.1 36.1 1.4 3.0 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.5 14.5 12.7 110.4 69.0 44.7 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 1.4 6.3 5.6 84.4 61.9 34.3 1.7 3.9 7.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 1.0 4.4 7.0 95.1 64.3 36.1 1.1 2.5 4.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.6 8.1 10.4 132.8 74.1 44.3 1.6 3.4 6.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.8 8.8 12.3 100.2 65.8 45.9 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 2.4 11.9 9.5 127.0 72.9 42.9 2.7 5.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.3 11.0 13.4 100.6 65.4 46.9 3.0 6.4 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 2.5 10.0 7.3 94.2 64.3 37.7 2.6 5.7 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 1.9 7.7 10.3 117.1 70.8 44.7 2.0 3.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 2.5 10.5 10.0 125.3 72.6 43.2 2.8 5.1 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.9 13.7 11.3 112.2 69.3 46.0 3.9 7.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.1 7.6 7.5 87.2 62.7 37.3 2.3 4.7 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 1.4 5.6 5.8 89.7 63.0 35.6 1.9 3.6 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.8 11.6 8.2 95.5 65.1 40.0 2.7 6.3 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 1.4 5.6 6.5 83.6 61.7 35.2 1.5 3.5 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 3.4 10.5 13.1 98.0 64.7 46.4 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 2.4 14.2 9.3 123.3 71.8 41.9 2.6 6.0 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------