***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.07.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.07.2019.-18.08.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 18.0 31.2 30.9 69.5 46.9 40.3 18.4 34.7 57.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 23.8 37.0 30.8 73.4 48.8 42.1 23.7 38.1 56.6 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 26.4 39.1 31.5 70.5 47.5 41.0 27.2 41.4 58.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 23.2 38.7 29.9 67.9 46.8 38.7 25.9 41.9 62.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 16.6 27.5 29.6 70.3 47.9 39.5 17.4 29.0 44.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 21.3 34.9 34.7 72.6 45.4 38.3 24.8 39.1 56.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 19.5 29.4 30.0 70.9 46.5 40.6 19.8 32.5 48.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 37.8 53.5 35.4 70.4 45.8 39.7 40.2 57.8 78.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 22.9 35.1 31.4 69.9 47.2 39.8 24.6 37.4 53.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 25.3 40.8 37.2 71.0 46.4 39.6 26.9 44.9 67.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 17.9 29.6 27.5 68.8 46.6 39.2 19.4 32.5 49.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 19.1 30.6 27.1 69.9 47.4 40.1 19.6 33.0 50.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 16.1 28.0 28.0 71.2 48.2 39.5 17.9 29.1 43.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 60.9 54.1 48.7 84.9 53.1 45.7 32.4 50.2 72.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 18.9 28.6 23.9 62.8 45.9 38.1 19.6 31.8 47.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 14.7 24.7 26.9 68.9 46.7 38.6 16.5 26.8 39.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 31.8 44.1 33.4 77.2 49.8 42.9 32.2 44.1 57.7 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 32.0 46.5 47.1 79.0 49.0 42.7 32.2 47.4 65.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 24.8 41.7 32.8 76.7 50.8 43.3 24.3 40.7 62.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 31.1 41.0 47.1 77.9 46.5 42.0 31.5 43.6 57.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 27.0 40.0 30.2 68.0 46.7 39.6 29.2 42.7 58.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 29.0 43.3 37.1 81.5 52.3 43.8 29.5 41.4 55.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 24.0 39.9 36.3 81.4 53.0 44.8 23.5 37.1 54.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 62.8 55.6 43.6 81.7 51.8 45.0 38.7 53.9 71.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 26.0 38.2 33.3 71.0 47.7 40.9 27.2 40.2 56.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 18.9 29.6 22.5 67.4 46.0 37.7 20.9 32.8 47.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 26.4 40.2 33.5 71.5 47.1 40.7 27.9 43.2 62.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 16.9 27.7 26.9 64.7 45.5 37.9 18.2 32.0 49.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 45.8 61.1 49.2 79.0 47.5 42.5 46.2 63.8 84.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 19.9 32.0 30.7 72.0 48.2 41.4 19.9 33.6 51.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------