***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 15.5 17.9 -0.7 36.4 39.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 14.5 14.7 17.8 -0.8 33.8 37.6 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 17.0 17.2 17.7 -0.8 34.2 37.8 17.1 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 12.2 12.5 16.1 -0.8 32.7 36.9 12.5 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 13.4 13.8 15.8 -0.7 34.2 38.2 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 12.7 13.2 14.5 -0.2 43.8 44.7 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 14.8 15.0 17.9 -0.8 34.0 37.7 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 8.0 8.4 14.0 -0.6 35.1 38.7 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 14.7 15.0 16.1 -0.6 35.9 39.4 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 14.6 15.0 14.5 -0.7 34.6 38.6 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 14.3 14.8 15.5 -0.5 38.4 41.3 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 12.6 13.0 14.9 -0.6 36.5 39.8 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 13.7 14.1 14.4 -0.5 37.5 40.7 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 15.3 15.4 15.8 -0.9 29.3 34.2 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 15.9 16.3 17.1 -0.5 38.4 41.2 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 15.1 15.6 15.2 -0.5 38.3 41.0 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 15.3 15.6 17.5 -0.6 36.4 39.6 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 12.8 13.1 13.7 -0.8 31.9 36.6 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 14.8 15.0 17.7 -0.8 33.7 37.7 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 9.0 9.2 12.2 -0.7 33.1 36.9 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 14.5 14.8 17.1 -0.7 35.4 38.9 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 14.4 14.6 17.3 -0.7 34.9 38.7 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 14.2 14.4 17.4 -0.8 32.6 37.1 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 15.1 15.3 15.6 -0.8 31.6 36.1 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.5 14.8 16.4 -0.7 35.3 38.7 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 13.9 14.1 14.5 -0.6 34.1 37.9 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 14.5 14.9 17.1 -0.7 35.6 38.7 14.7 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 13.6 13.9 16.5 -0.7 35.1 38.5 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 12.0 12.3 13.2 -0.7 33.4 37.7 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.1 17.9 -0.8 33.7 37.4 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------