***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 16.6 18.6 0.7 65.9 61.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.7 16.0 18.6 0.6 62.9 58.9 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.3 18.6 18.4 0.6 64.0 59.7 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.8 16.7 0.7 65.6 60.9 12.8 13.9 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.3 14.8 16.4 0.7 66.7 61.5 13.3 14.0 14.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 13.8 13.9 15.0 1.1 74.2 66.8 12.5 13.1 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.4 18.7 0.6 64.2 59.8 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 9.9 9.9 14.7 0.7 67.0 62.0 8.2 9.0 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 16.1 16.1 16.7 0.8 68.5 62.5 14.5 15.3 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 15.9 15.9 15.2 0.8 68.0 62.5 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.6 16.1 1.0 71.8 65.6 14.1 14.7 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 13.6 13.6 15.6 0.8 69.4 63.8 12.2 12.9 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 14.6 14.7 15.0 0.9 71.1 64.7 13.3 13.9 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.2 16.5 0.5 61.8 58.4 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 17.1 17.3 17.8 1.0 73.6 66.7 15.5 16.2 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 16.5 16.7 15.8 1.0 72.1 65.7 15.1 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 16.4 16.7 18.1 0.6 64.9 60.3 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.7 14.1 14.4 0.7 66.3 61.4 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.8 16.0 18.5 0.6 62.5 58.7 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.9 12.9 0.6 63.5 59.1 8.9 9.4 10.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.6 17.7 0.7 65.6 60.4 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.4 18.0 0.6 63.0 59.0 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.4 18.1 0.5 62.0 58.4 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 15.6 16.0 16.3 0.6 64.9 60.6 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.5 16.0 17.1 0.7 66.7 61.8 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 14.6 14.8 15.0 0.6 64.8 61.0 13.8 14.4 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.6 17.8 0.7 66.7 61.9 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 14.6 14.7 17.2 0.8 68.5 63.1 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.5 14.0 13.8 0.7 66.5 61.5 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.2 16.4 18.7 0.6 63.1 59.1 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------