***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 26.7 27.8 -1.1 35.2 37.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 27.2 27.1 27.0 -2.1 25.0 28.5 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 26.8 26.9 26.9 -2.1 25.3 29.0 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 20.6 21.8 26.4 -0.6 41.9 43.3 21.1 22.5 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 27.4 28.0 26.1 -1.4 32.8 36.1 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 26.8 28.5 25.1 0.2 52.6 51.7 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 27.1 27.4 27.5 -1.4 31.7 34.3 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 15.8 15.9 23.3 -2.1 25.7 30.2 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 26.9 27.2 26.5 -1.7 29.2 33.1 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 26.6 26.7 24.2 -2.0 26.1 30.6 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 26.9 27.6 25.7 -1.4 33.0 36.3 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 26.2 26.8 24.9 -1.6 31.3 35.0 26.9 28.4 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 27.7 28.9 25.9 -0.6 42.9 44.1 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 26.1 25.3 24.2 -3.2 14.4 18.3 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 30.7 30.5 29.2 0.3 54.6 53.3 28.9 30.1 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 28.3 29.4 26.2 -0.7 41.3 42.9 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 26.6 26.6 26.8 -1.9 25.6 28.8 27.2 28.3 29.5 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 25.8 25.5 22.6 -2.6 20.6 25.2 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 26.5 26.4 26.7 -2.3 22.2 26.1 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 21.7 21.3 20.6 -2.6 20.3 25.0 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 26.9 27.2 27.0 -1.9 27.7 31.5 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 26.7 26.3 26.1 -2.6 18.7 22.4 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 26.5 26.1 26.2 -2.6 19.9 24.1 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 26.1 25.7 24.5 -2.7 19.1 23.5 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 27.4 28.2 26.8 -1.0 37.6 39.6 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 27.3 28.3 25.3 -0.9 39.1 41.2 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 27.1 27.8 27.4 -0.9 38.2 40.0 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 28.5 29.8 27.5 -0.3 46.0 46.6 28.9 30.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 21.1 20.6 21.6 -2.8 19.0 23.7 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 27.0 27.0 27.3 -1.9 27.1 30.4 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------