***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 27.6 27.7 -1.6 26.6 31.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 27.6 27.5 27.4 -2.0 23.5 28.5 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 27.7 27.7 27.6 -1.8 25.2 30.2 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 21.1 21.3 26.7 -1.4 28.2 33.2 21.7 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 28.4 28.5 26.3 -1.5 28.0 32.9 28.9 30.3 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 29.4 28.4 25.0 -0.5 42.8 44.7 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 27.4 27.4 27.4 -1.8 24.6 29.7 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 16.9 16.9 24.6 -1.4 30.3 34.8 17.1 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 28.0 28.1 26.4 -1.6 27.6 32.7 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 27.8 27.9 25.1 -1.5 28.2 33.2 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 28.3 28.4 26.0 -1.2 32.0 36.3 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 27.7 28.0 25.9 -1.1 33.9 37.7 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 30.7 29.3 25.7 -0.8 38.1 41.0 28.9 30.2 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 27.4 27.2 25.5 -2.0 22.8 28.3 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 29.2 29.6 27.7 -1.0 34.2 38.7 29.5 30.7 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 29.4 29.8 26.1 -1.0 35.4 38.9 29.6 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 26.9 26.8 27.1 -2.0 23.0 28.4 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 26.7 26.8 24.1 -1.6 27.1 32.2 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 27.1 27.0 27.4 -2.0 23.2 28.3 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 22.8 22.9 22.2 -1.5 28.3 33.1 23.3 24.5 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 28.0 28.0 27.2 -1.7 26.4 31.4 28.5 29.8 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 27.5 27.2 26.9 -2.1 21.9 27.5 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 27.2 27.2 27.1 -2.0 23.3 28.5 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 27.2 27.2 25.7 -1.8 25.3 30.5 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 28.2 28.3 26.5 -1.5 27.5 32.6 28.7 29.9 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 28.2 28.7 25.9 -0.9 36.6 39.6 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 27.7 27.8 26.9 -1.5 26.9 32.1 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 29.2 29.4 27.1 -1.2 31.3 35.8 29.5 30.6 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 22.1 22.2 23.1 -1.6 27.1 32.1 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 27.5 27.4 27.6 -1.9 24.2 29.2 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------