***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 28.7 29.0 0.0 49.6 49.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.9 28.8 -0.1 48.4 47.8 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.8 28.9 -0.2 47.5 47.6 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 22.4 21.8 27.8 -0.1 47.8 48.8 20.7 21.9 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 30.0 29.4 27.5 -0.1 47.9 48.4 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 28.5 28.2 25.6 0.2 52.9 52.7 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.2 28.8 28.8 0.0 50.5 49.5 27.7 28.7 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 16.3 17.2 25.6 -0.3 45.5 46.6 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 27.6 28.8 27.6 -0.1 48.5 48.7 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 27.4 28.5 26.2 -0.2 46.9 47.4 27.6 28.7 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 29.6 29.1 27.1 0.0 50.3 50.2 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 26.9 28.1 26.9 -0.2 47.6 48.4 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 29.9 29.4 26.5 0.0 49.4 50.0 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.4 26.7 -0.4 43.8 44.5 27.7 28.8 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.2 29.9 28.7 0.2 53.0 53.3 28.7 29.8 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 30.6 30.1 27.1 0.0 50.3 50.5 28.9 30.1 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 28.8 28.3 28.5 0.0 50.1 48.8 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.5 25.1 -0.3 45.6 46.2 26.8 27.8 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 29.1 28.4 28.8 -0.2 47.5 47.1 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.1 23.4 23.1 -0.4 44.2 45.5 22.7 23.7 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.9 28.4 -0.2 47.8 48.2 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 27.4 28.7 28.3 -0.1 48.1 47.2 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.5 28.4 -0.2 46.7 46.7 27.7 28.7 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.2 26.8 -0.3 45.7 46.1 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.3 27.7 0.0 49.6 49.9 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 27.8 28.9 26.6 -0.2 46.0 47.9 28.0 29.1 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 29.3 28.8 28.2 0.0 50.2 50.1 27.8 28.8 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.0 29.5 28.1 -0.1 49.0 50.0 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.6 22.9 24.1 -0.4 44.8 45.6 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.7 29.0 -0.1 48.2 47.8 27.8 28.9 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------