***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 30.9 30.0 1.2 66.4 62.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 30.0 30.6 29.9 1.1 65.3 60.9 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.9 30.6 30.0 1.1 65.1 60.8 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 23.2 23.9 28.5 1.0 64.3 60.6 21.3 22.7 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 30.8 31.5 28.4 1.0 64.5 60.6 28.9 30.3 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 29.2 30.3 26.3 1.4 69.7 64.8 27.4 28.8 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 29.7 30.4 29.8 1.2 67.0 62.2 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.9 26.5 1.0 63.7 59.9 16.6 17.9 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 30.0 30.7 28.6 1.1 65.2 60.9 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 29.7 30.3 27.2 1.0 64.4 60.3 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 31.3 31.2 28.1 1.2 67.2 62.7 28.3 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 29.6 30.3 27.8 1.1 65.4 61.4 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 30.7 31.5 27.4 1.2 66.5 62.4 28.8 30.2 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 29.7 30.0 27.8 0.8 61.2 58.0 27.8 29.2 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 31.7 31.8 29.4 1.3 69.6 64.6 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 31.3 32.3 27.9 1.3 67.2 62.9 29.4 30.8 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.9 29.4 1.0 64.5 60.2 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 28.7 29.2 26.2 0.9 62.8 59.0 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 29.7 30.3 29.9 1.1 64.9 60.6 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.9 25.2 24.0 0.8 61.5 58.2 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 30.1 30.7 29.4 1.0 64.3 60.4 28.2 29.6 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 29.9 30.4 29.3 0.9 63.0 59.2 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 29.7 30.3 29.6 1.1 64.6 60.4 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 29.3 29.8 27.9 0.9 63.0 59.2 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 30.3 31.1 28.6 1.1 65.7 61.7 28.5 29.8 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 30.3 30.9 27.4 1.0 63.8 60.5 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.8 30.6 29.1 1.2 66.6 62.3 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 30.8 31.5 28.9 1.1 65.8 61.8 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 24.2 24.6 25.1 0.9 61.7 58.4 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 29.9 30.6 30.1 1.1 65.8 61.3 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------