***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 28.2 28.6 -0.4 41.7 43.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 28.3 28.6 28.3 -0.8 34.9 38.4 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 28.3 28.5 28.3 -0.7 35.4 38.3 28.4 29.2 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.2 27.4 -0.3 43.3 45.1 21.6 22.5 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 28.8 29.3 27.1 -0.5 39.4 41.9 29.0 29.9 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.9 25.5 0.3 57.4 55.7 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 29.3 28.5 28.4 -0.5 39.7 42.2 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 16.9 17.2 25.0 -0.7 35.3 38.6 17.1 17.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 28.3 28.7 27.3 -0.6 38.3 41.0 28.5 29.3 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 27.9 28.3 25.7 -0.7 35.8 39.0 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 28.3 29.0 26.7 -0.3 42.7 44.6 28.5 29.4 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 27.7 28.3 26.4 -0.4 40.8 43.2 27.9 28.7 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 30.2 29.7 26.4 -0.1 48.9 49.5 28.9 29.8 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 27.6 27.7 26.0 -1.2 25.5 29.4 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 29.3 30.4 28.7 0.2 55.3 54.5 29.4 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 30.9 30.4 26.8 -0.1 47.8 48.6 29.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 27.7 27.9 27.9 -0.7 35.2 38.9 27.8 28.6 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 27.1 27.2 24.5 -0.9 31.2 34.8 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 27.8 28.0 28.2 -0.9 33.0 36.7 28.0 28.8 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 23.0 23.2 22.5 -0.9 30.1 33.9 23.3 24.1 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 28.4 28.7 28.0 -0.7 36.6 39.5 28.5 29.4 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 28.0 28.1 27.7 -1.0 30.0 34.6 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 27.9 28.1 27.8 -0.9 31.5 35.2 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 27.6 27.7 26.2 -1.0 30.4 33.9 27.8 28.7 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 29.9 29.2 27.4 -0.3 42.7 44.5 28.7 29.6 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.2 26.3 -0.3 44.3 45.9 28.6 29.4 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.8 27.9 -0.3 43.3 45.0 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 30.5 30.1 27.9 -0.1 47.3 48.4 29.4 30.2 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 22.4 22.5 23.5 -1.0 29.3 33.0 22.7 23.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 29.4 28.5 28.5 -0.7 36.4 39.4 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------