***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9999.0 110.1 63.5 176.9 83.3 76.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 69.8 104.1 70.0 197.2 87.9 80.1 24.0 38.6 57.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 71.7 105.9 70.9 202.1 88.3 80.5 27.8 42.4 60.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 69.3 84.1 56.1 144.2 76.9 66.3 25.1 41.9 63.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 49.0 63.4 60.6 158.6 80.3 70.2 18.0 29.4 43.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 45.7 57.5 56.7 114.3 67.0 58.0 24.8 38.8 56.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 57.6 79.2 65.7 181.1 85.3 77.9 22.5 34.5 49.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 90.2 117.0 72.1 175.3 84.2 75.2 40.1 57.8 79.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 60.1 79.2 65.7 171.8 82.9 73.4 25.6 38.2 53.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 79.6 105.9 74.4 169.7 83.0 74.4 28.9 46.2 68.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 53.6 72.8 55.3 161.2 80.7 70.1 19.4 32.3 48.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 57.3 78.4 55.6 171.6 82.8 72.5 19.3 32.4 49.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 49.8 55.6 52.3 137.7 74.9 65.2 20.5 31.7 45.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 90.6 138.4 85.1 199.8 89.5 82.6 32.4 50.6 73.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 37.5 57.2 46.4 133.3 73.6 60.9 18.6 30.8 46.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 44.8 51.4 50.2 139.0 75.2 65.0 17.9 28.2 41.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 65.1 86.6 67.5 189.5 87.1 78.1 32.4 44.1 57.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 76.0 98.5 85.8 171.9 84.3 77.1 31.2 46.4 64.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 77.1 123.4 72.7 208.4 89.4 81.6 23.7 40.1 61.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 65.2 81.6 88.2 167.4 84.0 77.0 30.5 42.9 56.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 66.7 88.4 63.2 181.1 84.3 75.7 28.8 42.5 58.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 66.4 93.1 71.4 200.6 89.4 80.1 30.4 42.5 56.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 68.1 109.7 76.1 220.1 90.7 83.3 23.6 37.4 54.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 83.7 112.9 81.3 191.3 87.6 79.9 38.2 53.8 71.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 62.2 75.6 63.4 151.4 78.6 70.3 27.1 40.5 56.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 53.2 65.1 47.2 155.5 79.4 68.2 20.9 32.8 47.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 69.5 85.7 64.9 157.3 79.5 72.5 27.3 42.7 62.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 38.2 59.6 49.4 133.2 73.6 62.3 18.0 31.2 48.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 97.9 120.0 86.4 170.9 84.5 77.9 46.9 64.5 84.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 63.9 96.3 69.9 195.4 87.5 80.1 20.0 33.7 51.4 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severu 0.6-0.7, na jugu 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------