***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2012.-29.07.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 9999.0 59.4 40.3 310.3 92.9 86.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 17.8 49.1 45.8 393.3 96.3 90.9 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 24.2 73.1 48.9 388.9 96.1 89.9 2.7 7.3 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 23.0 43.8 37.0 238.7 88.7 78.8 3.9 8.7 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 15.4 32.0 40.5 274.6 91.3 82.9 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 17.1 22.5 27.1 156.7 78.7 65.5 3.6 7.8 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 22.0 50.8 41.3 350.0 94.8 89.6 4.0 8.3 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 29.3 59.6 46.8 295.7 92.3 84.5 5.7 11.7 20.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 19.5 47.2 43.4 308.1 93.3 85.4 2.3 6.1 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 26.3 58.0 48.7 293.4 92.2 85.2 3.5 8.6 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 16.3 32.5 37.0 262.2 90.0 81.2 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 19.5 42.6 36.7 274.5 90.7 81.2 2.6 6.6 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 12.3 19.9 29.9 204.3 85.2 74.0 2.4 5.1 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 33.0 92.5 58.2 392.9 96.2 92.0 4.6 10.8 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 13.3 22.5 31.1 209.0 85.8 70.6 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 9.9 16.0 30.2 211.9 85.9 75.6 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 25.4 62.3 41.7 355.6 95.2 89.2 4.7 10.0 17.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 30.2 69.8 54.3 311.9 93.5 88.0 4.6 10.3 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 25.3 76.0 49.1 420.1 96.9 91.6 3.9 8.9 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 18.9 36.8 51.9 292.6 92.6 86.9 4.2 8.0 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 20.6 46.7 42.5 323.4 93.8 86.4 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 27.3 71.9 46.1 390.8 96.2 90.9 5.2 10.7 18.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 23.6 77.2 53.3 448.8 97.4 92.6 3.4 8.0 15.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 6 94 100 28.1 77.9 54.6 364.2 95.5 90.0 3.8 9.0 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 22.4 43.4 38.7 256.7 90.4 82.9 3.8 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 16.1 30.5 30.6 238.1 88.6 74.2 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 21.6 40.7 38.3 263.1 90.2 84.0 3.3 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 18.9 31.1 31.6 206.7 85.3 73.2 3.7 8.1 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 36.5 74.8 53.1 307.3 93.4 88.1 7.6 14.9 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 23.2 59.5 46.1 385.7 95.9 90.5 4.1 8.8 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------