***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2012.-05.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 20.2 11.5 126.1 73.0 53.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 4.9 20.7 12.1 125.8 72.7 52.7 4.3 9.2 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.0 15.3 10.7 119.1 71.2 51.4 3.7 7.4 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.6 15.2 9.4 112.0 69.8 48.7 3.3 7.2 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.6 14.4 9.9 118.0 71.1 50.0 3.4 6.9 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.1 14.8 14.6 117.2 70.8 54.4 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.6 16.3 12.4 130.1 73.5 54.6 3.2 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.5 23.0 12.1 129.0 73.4 52.9 4.0 9.2 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.2 16.5 11.4 131.8 74.1 55.0 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.5 19.8 12.8 131.7 73.9 55.7 4.8 9.2 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.9 15.4 8.9 125.7 72.7 52.2 2.7 6.3 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.1 14.8 8.9 123.9 72.6 49.6 2.8 6.4 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.3 12.3 10.5 115.0 70.7 52.6 2.7 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.5 19.8 13.4 128.7 73.1 54.1 2.6 6.8 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 2.6 9.9 7.9 107.7 68.9 46.6 2.2 5.0 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.2 14.1 9.5 117.4 70.9 52.7 3.5 6.9 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.3 21.7 13.2 147.2 77.0 53.4 4.2 8.5 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 16.2 18.9 15.4 134.5 74.5 59.6 3.6 7.8 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.3 19.9 11.7 124.1 72.2 51.8 3.7 8.4 15.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 15.8 18.1 17.3 140.1 75.6 61.4 5.2 8.9 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.0 15.2 10.4 128.6 73.4 54.2 2.7 6.0 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.4 15.2 13.0 143.1 76.0 50.7 3.3 6.5 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.0 15.5 11.5 124.0 72.2 51.3 2.6 6.2 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.1 15.8 13.2 128.1 73.1 56.0 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.0 15.6 12.5 122.2 72.3 55.7 2.4 6.1 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.1 12.5 7.2 104.9 67.7 47.6 3.7 7.0 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.3 20.5 13.8 133.2 74.5 57.7 3.2 7.7 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.3 11.8 8.8 112.9 70.0 48.2 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 23.8 27.8 16.1 138.8 75.3 61.4 5.6 11.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 3.6 13.8 11.7 120.0 71.4 52.6 3.3 6.6 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------