***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2012.-12.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 8.3 6.6 81.4 59.6 39.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.7 10.5 6.8 81.2 59.0 40.2 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.0 9.6 6.4 86.0 60.2 41.1 3.0 6.5 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.9 10.8 5.7 58.8 52.5 34.5 4.8 9.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.1 7.1 5.9 61.9 53.8 36.2 3.2 6.2 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 4.3 13.5 9.6 88.1 62.0 41.0 4.2 8.8 15.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.6 6.5 6.5 72.3 55.6 37.9 2.7 5.4 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.1 16.1 7.6 83.8 59.6 40.0 6.8 12.1 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.3 10.0 6.2 66.7 55.1 37.3 4.3 8.5 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.0 12.7 7.5 73.7 56.6 39.4 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 5.4 11.3 5.4 68.1 55.5 37.3 5.5 9.6 15.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.9 11.1 5.8 87.2 61.4 38.9 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.9 11.8 7.5 94.7 64.6 41.2 2.7 6.5 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 4.6 11.2 7.9 82.0 58.5 40.8 4.6 8.7 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.6 7.7 4.2 52.6 49.7 31.4 3.6 7.9 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.6 9.2 6.3 78.9 59.1 38.8 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.8 10.3 6.9 74.0 57.2 39.0 4.0 8.1 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.8 12.0 9.6 81.1 58.5 42.7 5.3 9.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.3 10.8 6.7 85.9 60.5 40.6 3.4 7.3 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.1 12.0 11.6 92.3 62.1 43.8 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 4.4 11.1 5.9 73.8 56.8 38.4 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.6 10.7 7.0 76.2 56.8 39.0 4.8 8.8 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 3.1 10.0 6.6 88.6 61.2 40.3 3.5 6.8 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.2 15.1 7.9 83.0 58.9 42.8 5.7 11.2 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.7 9.5 7.4 72.4 56.8 39.1 3.8 7.6 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 3.1 12.7 5.9 100.1 65.8 38.7 3.5 7.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 3.4 9.1 7.5 75.9 57.3 39.0 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 3.0 7.3 5.2 59.2 52.2 32.9 2.9 6.7 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.8 16.3 10.4 85.0 59.6 42.7 7.4 12.5 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.8 7.3 6.7 83.6 59.5 40.7 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------