***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.08.2012.-19.08.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 9999.0 12.5 5.1 89.0 62.6 37.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 69 31 0 100 2.0 8.4 5.4 90.6 62.6 37.5 2.3 5.2 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 2.7 9.8 4.9 80.0 59.9 36.9 3.1 6.7 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 1.6 6.1 4.0 75.7 57.1 33.2 1.9 4.5 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 1.3 4.5 4.4 78.6 58.5 33.9 1.6 3.3 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 1.5 4.7 5.4 60.4 50.8 31.0 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.1 7.0 5.5 92.6 62.7 39.3 2.3 4.5 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 3.3 10.7 5.6 80.2 58.7 33.8 4.0 8.0 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 1.7 5.7 4.6 74.6 57.5 34.2 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 2.8 8.8 5.5 73.2 56.6 34.7 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 1.3 4.5 4.1 78.6 57.9 32.2 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 76 24 0 100 1.5 5.2 4.2 83.3 59.4 31.2 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 1.1 4.1 4.4 68.4 54.3 31.0 1.4 3.5 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 4.3 10.9 5.5 71.4 56.8 36.4 4.9 8.9 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 72 28 0 100 1.4 4.9 3.2 70.6 54.7 29.8 1.6 4.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 1.1 4.2 4.1 71.1 54.7 31.6 1.4 3.4 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 1.7 6.3 5.6 101.7 66.0 40.5 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 2.6 6.5 6.5 69.7 56.4 37.8 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 2.1 7.7 5.1 85.8 61.3 35.3 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 2.7 8.7 7.4 73.7 56.7 36.7 3.5 6.9 11.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 2.0 8.1 4.4 77.3 58.9 35.5 2.4 5.6 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 1.8 6.6 5.4 95.7 63.1 36.6 2.2 4.3 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 2.6 7.8 4.8 79.2 59.8 34.7 3.1 5.8 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 3.6 9.8 5.7 71.6 57.3 38.2 3.8 7.6 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 1.6 6.0 4.9 74.4 57.9 36.0 1.7 4.3 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 1.1 3.7 3.5 72.1 54.7 28.0 1.6 3.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.5 9.7 5.3 80.3 59.9 37.5 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 1.2 4.1 3.8 72.4 55.2 31.1 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 3.4 8.9 6.7 70.9 56.5 38.0 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 2.4 9.8 5.4 89.1 62.2 37.2 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------