***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 93 7 100 16.0 15.6 18.8 -0.3 44.5 44.7 15.1 15.9 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 15.9 15.7 18.9 -0.1 47.8 47.9 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 18.0 17.6 19.0 -0.3 43.0 43.2 17.1 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 13.8 13.2 16.6 -0.3 43.2 43.4 12.6 13.6 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 14.4 14.0 17.1 -0.3 44.2 44.5 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 13.3 13.2 14.4 -0.1 48.4 48.5 12.6 13.2 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 94 6 100 16.3 16.1 19.0 -0.2 47.1 47.2 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 9.2 8.9 14.3 -0.2 45.3 45.6 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 93 7 100 15.7 15.7 17.6 0.2 53.7 53.6 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 15.5 15.4 15.6 0.0 50.9 51.0 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 92 8 100 15.2 15.0 16.8 -0.1 47.9 48.0 14.4 15.1 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 13.5 13.0 15.2 -0.4 41.1 41.6 12.7 13.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 14.6 14.8 16.0 0.3 58.5 58.0 13.8 14.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 95 5 100 16.3 16.4 17.3 0.2 54.6 54.5 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 92 8 100 16.9 17.0 18.8 0.2 54.6 54.4 16.0 16.8 17.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 15.8 15.7 16.2 -0.1 48.2 48.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 16.8 16.8 19.0 0.2 53.5 53.4 16.0 16.7 17.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 93 7 100 14.0 13.8 14.9 -0.1 48.9 49.0 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 15.9 15.7 18.8 -0.2 45.5 45.7 15.1 15.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 87 13 100 10.1 9.7 12.7 -0.3 44.6 44.8 9.3 9.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 93 7 100 15.5 15.2 18.3 -0.2 45.7 45.9 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 94 6 100 15.6 15.5 19.0 0.0 50.8 50.7 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 15.4 15.1 18.7 -0.3 44.9 45.1 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 97 3 100 16.0 16.0 17.2 0.1 51.4 51.5 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 15.4 14.9 17.9 -0.4 42.0 42.3 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 94 6 100 14.5 14.5 14.7 0.0 51.0 50.9 13.8 14.4 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 94 6 100 15.3 14.9 18.3 -0.3 44.1 44.3 14.3 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 14.5 14.1 17.1 -0.2 44.4 44.6 13.6 14.4 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 13.3 13.1 14.0 -0.1 48.7 48.8 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 16.2 15.9 19.0 -0.3 44.1 44.3 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------