***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 16.1 16.4 19.5 0.6 62.4 60.4 15.0 15.8 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 16.5 16.5 19.6 0.8 66.7 63.6 14.7 15.6 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 18.2 18.5 19.7 0.6 61.8 60.1 17.1 17.9 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 13.6 13.9 17.1 0.5 60.2 57.9 12.5 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 14.7 14.8 16.7 0.3 57.1 55.7 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 13.6 13.6 14.8 0.2 54.5 53.3 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 16.7 16.7 19.7 0.8 66.6 63.6 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 9.3 9.4 14.6 0.3 57.2 56.0 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 15.9 16.0 16.9 0.4 59.0 57.4 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 15.8 15.9 15.4 0.4 58.5 57.0 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.5 16.2 0.3 56.4 55.2 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 13.7 13.8 15.4 0.4 58.2 56.9 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 14.8 14.9 14.8 0.3 57.8 56.4 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.4 16.7 17.1 0.6 62.9 60.8 15.5 16.2 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 17.0 17.2 18.4 0.5 60.9 58.2 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 16.2 16.4 15.7 0.4 57.9 56.4 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 17.0 17.2 19.6 1.0 71.0 66.7 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.2 14.6 14.7 0.6 63.0 60.5 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 16.5 16.4 19.5 0.7 64.6 62.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 10.1 10.3 12.4 0.4 59.8 57.7 9.2 9.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.8 18.4 0.4 59.3 57.7 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 15.9 16.0 19.4 0.9 69.1 65.4 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.4 15.7 19.2 0.6 62.3 60.4 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.5 16.9 0.6 64.1 61.8 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 15.8 16.2 18.1 0.5 61.1 59.1 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 15.0 15.3 14.8 0.6 62.9 60.7 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.6 18.7 0.6 62.5 60.5 14.7 15.8 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 14.8 14.9 17.3 0.4 58.6 56.5 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.5 14.0 0.4 60.1 58.1 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 16.9 16.7 19.7 0.7 64.7 62.3 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------