***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.1 19.3 0.3 58.9 57.8 15.4 15.9 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 15.9 16.2 19.4 0.5 65.2 62.8 15.1 15.7 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 18.2 18.3 19.4 0.3 58.0 57.0 17.6 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 13.8 13.9 16.8 0.2 56.3 55.4 13.1 13.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 14.5 14.5 16.9 0.1 54.1 53.6 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 13.5 13.5 14.6 0.1 54.9 54.1 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 16.2 16.4 19.5 0.5 63.7 61.6 15.6 16.0 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 9.3 9.3 14.5 0.2 57.3 56.6 8.8 9.2 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 15.7 15.9 17.1 0.3 61.0 59.6 15.2 15.6 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 15.6 15.7 15.5 0.3 60.2 59.0 15.1 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 15.2 15.3 16.4 0.2 56.6 55.9 14.7 15.1 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 13.4 13.4 15.3 0.1 54.3 53.9 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.5 14.8 15.2 0.3 62.9 61.2 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 16.2 16.5 17.2 0.5 65.4 63.4 15.7 16.1 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 16.8 17.1 18.5 0.4 61.9 60.1 16.2 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 88 12 100 16.0 16.1 15.9 0.2 57.4 56.5 15.5 15.9 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 16.9 17.0 19.3 0.8 72.0 68.4 16.0 16.5 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 14.0 14.2 14.7 0.4 62.9 61.2 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.1 19.3 0.4 62.7 60.7 15.4 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 10.0 10.1 12.5 0.2 58.9 57.6 9.4 9.9 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 15.5 15.5 18.4 0.2 56.4 55.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 15.5 15.8 19.3 0.7 69.6 66.2 14.9 15.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 15.4 15.5 19.1 0.3 60.5 59.0 14.9 15.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 16.0 16.2 17.0 0.4 64.7 62.9 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 15.6 15.7 18.0 0.2 55.7 55.0 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 14.7 14.9 14.7 0.4 63.8 61.8 14.2 14.6 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 15.9 16.0 18.6 0.3 58.4 57.3 15.1 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 14.5 14.5 17.1 0.1 54.6 53.7 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 13.3 13.5 14.0 0.3 60.9 59.4 12.8 13.2 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 16.2 16.4 19.5 0.4 61.0 59.5 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------