***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-29.07.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 26.5 26.1 26.7 -3.2 14.3 16.2 27.8 29.0 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 26.7 26.5 27.3 -2.8 18.3 20.3 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 93 7 0 100 26.1 25.6 26.4 -3.6 13.5 15.2 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 98 2 0 100 19.3 18.3 23.3 -3.9 9.7 10.9 21.1 22.5 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 98 2 0 100 26.2 24.9 23.8 -4.3 8.7 9.7 28.0 29.5 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 25.3 24.3 21.7 -3.8 9.3 10.2 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 26.6 26.4 27.4 -2.6 20.0 22.0 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 14.9 13.7 21.4 -4.4 8.4 9.2 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 25.8 24.7 24.8 -4.1 9.5 10.8 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 99 1 0 100 25.5 24.3 22.5 -4.4 8.9 9.9 27.3 28.8 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 25.7 24.4 23.9 -4.5 8.6 9.5 27.6 29.1 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 25.1 23.8 22.6 -4.4 8.1 8.9 26.9 28.4 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 26.3 25.3 23.6 -4.2 9.0 10.1 28.1 29.5 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 25.7 25.4 25.0 -3.4 14.9 16.2 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 96 4 0 100 27.4 26.7 26.3 -3.3 11.3 13.1 28.9 30.1 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 26.8 25.7 23.6 -4.2 9.0 9.9 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 26.5 26.5 27.7 -2.0 24.9 26.8 27.2 28.3 29.5 29 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 25.0 24.0 21.6 -4.3 9.7 10.6 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 26.1 25.8 26.9 -3.1 16.4 18.3 27.2 28.5 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 20.8 19.6 19.6 -4.2 8.8 9.5 22.5 23.9 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 98 2 0 100 26.0 25.1 25.7 -4.0 10.5 11.9 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 26.9 26.9 27.6 -2.0 25.3 27.2 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 26.1 25.7 26.6 -3.3 15.6 17.3 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 25.4 24.7 24.4 -3.9 11.7 13.0 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 26.2 25.4 25.1 -3.7 11.4 12.9 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 99 1 0 100 26.0 24.8 22.5 -4.1 8.6 9.6 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 26.1 25.7 26.1 -3.2 14.2 16.0 27.4 28.7 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 98 2 0 100 27.3 26.3 24.3 -3.9 9.1 10.4 28.9 30.1 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 99 1 0 100 20.3 19.3 21.0 -4.2 9.8 10.6 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 88 12 0 100 26.3 26.0 27.0 -3.1 16.2 18.2 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------