***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.07.2018.-05.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 30.2 28.6 29.5 -1.1 35.5 37.6 28.4 29.7 30.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 29.9 28.8 29.9 -0.8 39.8 41.1 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 28.1 28.3 29.4 -1.4 32.7 34.8 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 21.1 21.0 26.3 -1.9 25.1 27.6 21.7 22.9 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 28.1 27.9 26.7 -2.2 22.3 24.8 28.9 30.3 31.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 26.7 26.7 24.1 -2.2 21.2 23.2 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.7 28.8 30.1 -0.5 42.9 43.9 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 16.2 16.1 24.4 -2.4 20.4 22.7 17.1 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 28.0 27.8 27.4 -2.0 24.5 27.0 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 27.5 27.3 25.4 -2.3 22.2 24.6 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 27.5 27.4 26.6 -2.4 21.1 23.6 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 80 20 0 100 26.9 26.8 25.6 -2.5 19.7 22.1 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 28.0 27.8 25.8 -2.4 19.5 22.0 28.9 30.2 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.7 28.0 27.6 -1.3 32.6 34.4 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 29.2 29.3 28.5 -1.4 29.7 32.0 29.5 30.7 31.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 28.6 28.5 26.1 -2.3 20.6 23.0 29.6 30.8 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 29.3 28.8 30.2 -0.1 48.2 48.5 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 70 30 0 100 26.5 26.5 24.9 -2.1 24.4 26.5 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.6 28.1 29.7 -1.0 36.9 38.6 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 22.3 22.3 22.5 -2.3 21.8 23.9 23.3 24.5 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 28.3 28.0 28.5 -1.8 27.0 29.4 28.5 29.8 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 29.8 29.3 30.2 -0.1 48.7 48.8 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 29.7 28.1 29.3 -1.2 35.0 36.8 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 27.4 27.4 27.2 -1.7 28.3 30.5 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 28.5 28.4 27.7 -1.6 29.3 31.6 28.7 29.9 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 75 25 0 100 27.6 27.5 25.5 -2.2 21.4 24.0 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 29.9 28.5 28.8 -1.0 36.2 38.2 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 29.0 28.9 26.9 -2.0 23.7 26.2 29.5 30.6 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 21.9 22.0 24.1 -2.0 24.8 26.8 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 29.9 28.5 29.8 -0.9 37.6 39.2 28.1 29.4 30.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------