***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.08.2018.-12.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 27.7 28.3 29.3 -0.9 37.3 39.1 28.0 29.1 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 27.7 28.4 29.6 -0.6 40.8 41.9 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 27.5 28.0 29.4 -1.0 36.0 38.1 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 20.0 20.5 27.0 -1.4 30.1 32.9 20.7 21.9 23.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 27.7 27.9 27.0 -1.7 27.7 30.6 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 26.4 26.6 24.7 -1.5 28.8 31.3 26.9 28.0 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.2 28.3 29.8 -0.5 43.3 44.2 27.7 28.7 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 16.0 16.2 25.3 -1.6 29.0 31.8 16.4 17.4 18.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 27.3 27.5 27.2 -1.6 29.1 31.9 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 27.1 27.4 25.9 -1.6 29.5 32.2 27.6 28.7 29.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 27.2 27.6 26.7 -1.6 28.7 31.5 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 26.5 26.7 26.4 -1.7 27.6 30.5 27.1 28.2 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 27.5 27.6 25.6 -2.0 24.5 27.5 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 27.4 27.8 27.1 -1.1 34.9 37.3 27.7 28.8 29.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 28.3 28.8 28.2 -1.0 34.4 36.7 28.7 29.8 30.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 28.2 28.5 26.4 -1.7 26.9 29.9 28.9 30.1 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.1 29.8 -0.2 46.6 46.6 27.2 28.3 29.3 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 26.4 26.7 25.5 -1.3 32.2 34.6 26.8 27.8 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 27.2 27.9 29.5 -0.8 38.9 40.3 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 22.2 22.5 23.0 -1.4 30.2 32.9 22.7 23.7 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 27.5 27.7 28.3 -1.5 30.6 33.3 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.3 28.6 29.7 -0.2 47.2 46.9 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 27.4 27.9 29.2 -0.9 37.0 38.9 27.7 28.7 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 27.0 27.4 27.1 -1.2 33.3 35.8 27.4 28.4 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 27.8 28.1 27.4 -1.4 31.2 33.9 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 27.6 27.9 26.7 -1.3 32.3 34.4 28.0 29.1 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 27.5 28.0 28.5 -0.9 37.1 39.0 27.8 28.8 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 27.9 28.3 27.3 -1.4 29.7 32.6 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 21.8 22.2 24.6 -1.3 32.9 35.2 22.2 23.2 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 27.6 28.2 29.5 -0.8 39.2 40.7 27.8 28.9 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------