***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 19.07.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.07.2018.-19.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 28.0 28.0 28.6 -1.6 21.7 25.2 28.6 29.4 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 28.0 28.2 29.0 -1.3 26.7 30.1 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 27.7 27.7 28.5 -1.8 19.8 23.3 28.4 29.2 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 89 11 0 100 20.7 20.3 25.8 -2.3 13.7 16.9 21.6 22.5 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 28.0 27.4 26.0 -2.6 11.1 13.9 29.0 29.9 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 26.7 26.2 23.7 -2.3 11.8 14.2 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 27.9 28.1 29.1 -1.1 29.8 32.6 28.2 29.0 29.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 16.4 15.8 24.0 -2.5 10.9 13.6 17.1 17.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 87 13 0 100 27.7 27.2 26.5 -2.4 12.5 15.6 28.5 29.3 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 27.3 26.7 24.8 -2.5 11.8 14.7 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 92 8 0 100 27.5 26.9 25.9 -2.6 11.3 13.7 28.5 29.4 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 92 8 0 100 26.9 26.3 25.2 -2.6 10.6 13.2 27.9 28.7 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 95 5 0 100 27.9 27.3 25.1 -2.7 10.1 12.4 28.9 29.8 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 27.4 27.3 26.6 -1.8 19.3 22.5 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 28.8 28.6 27.7 -1.8 17.9 21.7 29.4 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 28.6 27.9 25.6 -2.6 11.1 13.5 29.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 27.5 27.9 29.2 -0.8 35.1 37.5 27.8 28.6 29.4 29 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 26.5 26.1 24.3 -2.3 13.1 16.1 27.3 28.1 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 27.4 27.5 28.8 -1.5 24.1 27.8 28.0 28.8 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 92 8 0 100 22.4 21.9 21.9 -2.4 11.3 14.0 23.3 24.1 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 85 15 0 100 27.7 27.3 27.6 -2.3 14.0 17.1 28.5 29.4 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 27.9 28.4 29.1 -0.8 35.8 38.1 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 27.6 27.6 28.5 -1.7 22.4 26.1 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 86 14 0 100 27.1 26.8 26.3 -2.1 15.7 19.0 27.8 28.7 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 28.0 27.6 26.7 -2.1 15.6 18.8 28.7 29.6 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 27.7 27.3 25.2 -2.2 13.2 16.4 28.6 29.4 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 27.8 27.7 27.8 -1.6 21.6 24.8 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 28.6 28.2 26.3 -2.3 13.1 16.4 29.4 30.2 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 21.9 21.5 23.5 -2.3 13.4 16.2 22.7 23.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 27.7 27.8 28.9 -1.5 24.4 27.9 28.3 29.1 29.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------